This article was originally published on The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Disclosure information is available on the original site.
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Author: Ian Urquhart, Professor Emeritus, Political Science, University of Alberta
“We heard you, Albertans.” With those words, Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean put coal mining in Alberta’s Rocky Mountains back on the table last December. Common sense might suggest Jean meant that Albertans are in favour of resuscitating metallurgical coal mining there, but that’s not the case.
Instead, the public strongly opposes reviving metallurgical coal mining — also known as coking coal mining — to supply Asian steelmakers. December’s Coal Industry Modernization Initiative sadly exemplifies what has become too common in politics today — using misinformation to try to win the public’s willingness to accept the unacceptable.
In this case, the government’s treatment of expert opinion compounds its misinformation. It’s blind to expert advice from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Australian government questioning the rosiness of metallurgical coal’s future.
Bringing coal miners back to Alberta’s Rockies was extremely contentious between 2020 and 2022. Jason Kenney’s Conservatives removed the de facto exploration and exploitation restrictions in place there since the 1970s. At the same time, Benga Mining Limited proposed to resume coal mining in southwest Alberta. Together, these events ignited a public furore.
Public opposition
Andrew Nikiforuk, a journalist whose books and articles focus on epidemics and the energy industry, was one of the first to bring coal miner ambitions to the public’s attention. He told me the outrage was “probably the most important environmental protest I have ever witnessed in this province.”
Benga’s Grassy Mountain project was summarily dismissed by government regulators in 2021. Eleven weeks before that decision, Alberta created the Coal Policy Committee. It consulted Albertans about the 2020 decision to invite coal miners to return to the Rockies.
The committee gave anyone with a view on coal — positive or negative — the opportunity to contribute to its deliberations. The response was impressive. The committee received nearly 4,400 pieces of correspondence, 176 detailed written submissions and conducted 67 virtual and public meetings.
The consultation confirmed what polling firms had already found: “A significant number of respondents are apprehensive about coal development in Alberta.”
Albertans didn’t believe coal’s economic benefits justified its risks to landscapes and water quality. Only eight per cent of those who answered the committee’s survey question about the economic benefits of coal mining felt they were very important; 64 per cent regarded those benefits as “not important at all.”
This unambiguous public opposition repeated what the federal-provincial review panel into Benga’s Grassy Mountain coal mine proposal revealed in 2020-2021. Ninety-eight per cent of the more than 4,400 public comments left on the review panel’s website opposed the proposal to bring coal mining back to the Crowsnest Pass.
Second, the committee concluded that land-use planning, with public consultation, needed to take place before a decision could be made about permitting coal exploration in the Rockies.
Premier Danielle Smith’s government hasn’t listened. It doesn’t intend to conduct the land-use planning called for by the committee.
Jean has also said he will consult industry — and only industry — as he tries to get his new policy in place this year. He promised “targeted” engagement with coal industry stakeholders. The public and other interests will be mere spectators.
Global coal demand is a myth
Alberta’s coal initiative has an optimistic view of future metallurgical coal demand.
Jean markets his proposal by saying Alberta coal is needed “given the current and anticipated future global demand for coal.” But the IAE doesn’t share that optimism. Nor do experts from the Australian government, the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal.
The IEA’s annual coal report is a benchmark for understanding the medium-term global outlook for coal. Its most recent report projects metallurgical coal production will fall by 4.2 per cent from 2024 to 2027. The IEA’s 2024 World Energy Outlook predicted steelmaking coal production would fall over the next two decades as steelmakers reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In 2050, it expects world coking coal production to drop 35.8 per cent from the 2024 level.
Australia’s pre-eminence comes from producing 46 per cent of global metallurgical coal exports. The Australian government’s March 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly confirms the general thrust of the IEA’s analyses. A slight increase in the amount of steel produced without metallurgical coal “will likely result in a slight fall in global metallurgical coal demand through to 2030.”
Asian demand
The IEA makes it clear that Australian producers don’t intend to relinquish market share willingly. Forty-seven Australian coal projects are in the pipeline, with most focused on metallurgical coal or metallurgical/thermal coal combined. Three-quarters of Australia’s metallurgical coal exports feed the Asian steel industry.
Then there’s Mongolia. After its “recent extraordinary export growth” into China, Mongolia now supplies nearly one-half of China’s imports. The country is the world’s second largest metallurgical coal exporter. Mongolia’s high-quality coal, proximity to China and improved rail infrastructure will make its production difficult to displace.
It’s unlikely, then, that new coal production from Alberta will gain easy access to Asian markets.
Alberta’s Coal Industry Modernization Initiative illustrates two dangerous trends in politics today — the refusal to heed both the public and experts.
The stakes here are large. Coal mining will undoubtedly have a substantial impact on the headwaters that serve people in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Smith’s Conservatives should in fact embrace common sense and the spirit of party policy from the 1970s. Prohibit coal mining in Alberta’s Rockies.
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Ian Urquhart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Disclosure information is available on the original site. Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/coal-in-alberta-neither-public-outrage-nor-waning-global-demand-seem-to-matter-to-danielle-smith-252551
Ian Urquhart, Professor Emeritus, Political Science, University of Alberta, The Conversation
