The difference between a late first round draft pick and an early second round draft pick is minimal, but it somehow feels like there’s a massive gap. The NHL draft takes place over two days, but the entire first day is taken up by the first round.
In the first round, each pick is made with a stage full of people: the team’s General Manager, Assistant General Manager, Director of Player Development, Head of Scouting, Director of Amateur Scouting, Chief Amateur Scout, The Owner’s Oldest Son In an Ill-Fitting Suit, The Owner’s Youngest Son In An Ill-Fitting Jersey, and Gary Bettman will all await the arrival of the 31st overall pick with a customized jersey and a photo op.
Meanwhile, the 32nd pick won’t even be down the stairs before the 33rd pick is made.
The Canucks have the second pick in the second round, 33rd overall. They have the potential of getting an excellent prospect with that pick and will have the opportunity to nab a player that falls out of the first round. Here are some potential first round talents that could fall to the Canucks on the second day of the NHL draft.
Klim Kostin
Why he should go in the first round:
Central Scouting Services has Klim Kostin at number one on their list of European skaters. The 6’3” forward has game-breaking potential as a power winger with skill and vision. Heading into this season, he seemed like a lock to be a top-10 pick and several scouting services still rank him high in the first round.
Why he might fall:
Kostin suffered a season-ending shoulder injury that wiped out this past year. That alone would see him slip down draft rankings, but some inconsistent play saw him slip down even further. He was a non-factor in the Canada/Russia Super Series and didn’t manage a point in 8 KHL games. Will enough teams be scared off by his nightmare season and the ever-present Russian factor for him to fall out of the first round?
Why the Canucks should pick him:
If Kostin falls to 33rd overall, it should be a no-brainer for the Canucks. Kostin has first-line, game-breaking upside and could potentially be the power forward that fans and management have been craving for years.
Urho Vaakanainen
Why he should go in the first round:
Miro Heiskanen is expected to be the first defenceman taken in the draft; Vaakanainen isn’t that far off from Heiskanen statistically. Like Heiskanen, Vaakanainen spent most of the season in Liiga, Finland’s top league, playing for JYP. He played 41 games against men and managed 6 points, just a little behind Heiskanen.
Vaakanainen is a great skater that can play big minutes in every situation and has superb underlying possession statistics, leading his team in corsi percentage. He also put up 6 points in 5 games at the World U-18 tournament.
Why he might fall:
A lot more was expected of Vaakanainen, who scored 6 points in the previous season as a 16-year-old in fewer games. Instead of taking a step forward with another year of experience under his belt, he failed to wow scouts, who gradually moved him down their rankings. Future Considerations has him at 30th overall, Craig Button at 31st, and ISS at 37th.
It should also be noted that Vaakanainen was playing on the third pairing for JYP, so his corsi should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt. His limited offensive upside in comparison with other potential first-round defencemen might see him slip to the second round.
Why the Canucks should pick him:
Vaakanainen looks like a surefire top-four defenceman. Even if he played a lesser role, playing 66 games in the top Finnish league before the draft tells you a lot about how capable he is. Getting Vaakanainen at 33rd overall would go a long way to shoring up the Canucks' prospect depth on defence.
Maxime Comtois
Why he should go in the first round:
Comtois was enroute to being a top-10 pick after his rookie year in the QMJHL where he scored 26 goals and 60 points in 61 games. That kind of production as a 16-year-old will garner attention and he followed it up with 4 goals in 4 games at the Ivan Hlinka Memorial Tournament to lead Canada in scoring.
Comtois has NHL size, a well-rounded two-way game, and enough skill to make the most of his above-average hockey sense.
Why he could fall:
Notice how I didn’t talk about his most recent season? Comtois disappointed in his second year in the QMJHL, scoring fewer goals and putting up fewer points. He managed just 22 goals and 51 points in 64 games this past season, and had just 2 points, both goals, in 5 games at the U-18 tournament, where he was a penalty magnet.
Why the Canucks should pick him:
Despite the disappointing season, Comtois still has upside as a top-six forward. A mid-season move to centre seemed to benefit him — he had 14 points in his final 14 games — and he might project as a centre in the NHL. His 16-year-old season suggests that he has enough upside to make him worth the risk.
Erik Brannstrom
Why he should go in the first round:
Brannstrom is one of the best skaters in the draft, with sublime skill. He’s a one-man breakout, capable of skating the puck out in transition or making an excellent first pass. He has superb hockey sense that allows him to anticipate plays offensively and defensively, creating scoring chances at one end and eliminating them at the other. He’s the complete package in what you want from a two-way defenceman with offensive upside.
Why he might fall:
He’s undersized. ISS lists him at 5’9.5”. That lack of size could limit him in the NHL. Or, at the very least, it will make teams think that it will limit him. While plenty of draft rankings list him as a mid-first round pick, ISS has him all the way down at 41st overall and it wouldn’t be surprising if he ranks that low for a lot of teams around the NHL.
Why the Canucks should pick him:
If Brannstrom falls to the second round, the Canucks should absolutely snap him up. He’s one of the most skilled defencemen in the draft, with a statistical profile similar to Timothy Liljegren. He’s also one of the youngest players in the draft, not turning 18 until September. The upside is significant with Brannstrom, even if his size presents some level of risk, and his 35 games in the SHL this past season prove that he can hold his own against men.
Kailer Yamamoto
Why he should go in the first round:
Yamamoto was one of the top scorers in the WHL this past season, racking up 42 goals and 99 points in 65 games. He led all draft-eligible players in the WHL in points, primary points, and points-per-game. He’s an elite skater, possibly the fastest in the draft, is a dynamic scorer, and an intelligent playmaker. He could be a game-breaking first-line winger tailor-made for the modern NHL game.
Why he might fall:
If Brannstrom is undersized, Yamamoto is pint-sized. He’s listed at 5’8”, but might be even smaller. He gets compared to Johnny Gaudreau, but even Gaudreau has at least an inch on him. As fast and skilled as he is, that size may scare off a lot of teams. Will it scare them enough that he slips to the second round? That might be a pipe dream, but undersized players tend to scare off a lot of GMs.
Why the Canucks should pick him:
If, by some miracle, Yamamoto falls to 33rd overall, the Canucks have to take him. He would immediately become the most skilled prospect in the organization — yes, even more skilled than whoever they take fifth overall. His size is a legitimate concern — the list of players that have excelled in the NHL at his size is extremely short — but the Canucks need to take some swings for the fences if they want this rebuild to work.
