Breaking down the Canucks salary cap situation as summer truly begins

The NHL Entry Draft has come and gone. The major signings of free agency are finished. The Vancouver Canucks prospect development camp is over. And the last of the Canucks’ restricted free agents, Nils Höglander, signed on Friday.

With that, it feels like the Canucks’ offseason has truly begun. 

So, where do the Canucks stand heading into the summer months? After the Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout and free agent signings, what does their salary cap situation look like?

It’s not ideal. The Canucks’ cap-conscious work in free agency addressed major needs without breaking the bank but there’s still some work to be done before the start of next season. At least, there is if Tanner Pearson is healthy. 

After complications from a hand surgery led to multiple follow-up surgeries, it was a question whether Pearson would ever play hockey again, let alone be ready to hit the ice for training camp. Much of the roster speculation for the Canucks has been made with the assumption that Pearson would be on LTIR to start the season. But general manager Patrik Allvin said a couple of weeks ago that he expects Pearson to be healthy.

“The indication that I have got is that his hand is healing," said Allvin. "He's preparing himself to be ready for training camp.”

With the last of the Canucks’ contracts signed, sealed, and delivered, let’s take stock of the Canucks’ current cap situation and what it might mean if Pearson is on the roster.

Can the Canucks get cap compliant without LTIR?

Here’s a projected 23-man roster for next season, with players listed in order of cap hit by position rather than in potential lines and pairings.

This seems like a pretty reasonable expectation for what the Canucks’ roster could look like in October, perhaps with a little wiggle room around the edges for a player to impress in training camp and earn a spot.

The only trouble is that this 23-man roster is $317,917 over the salary cap, even with the cap relief provided by Tucker Poolman being on LTIR. 

By itself, that’s not too big a deal, as there are plenty of ways for the Canucks to be cap compliant to start the season. They could simply start the season with a 22-man roster by sending down one of Nils Åman or Vasily Podkolzin, the only players on this roster who are exempt from waivers. 

Alternatively, the Canucks could send down both Åman and Podkolzin and waive one of Nils Höglander or Dakota Joshua, replacing them with cheaper players — Sheldon Dries, Jack Studnicka, and Noah Juulsen, for instance — and be cap compliant with a full 23-man roster as well.

There’s also always the possibility that someone gets injured during training camp or the preseason and has to go on LTIR, providing cap relief. It may be that despite Allvin’s insistence that Pearson will be healthy, he’ll remain on LTIR, allowing his $3.25 million cap hit to be replaced on the roster by other players.

In an ideal world, however, the Canucks would be cap compliant with both Pearson and Poolman on the roster, rather than on LTIR. While LTIR can get exceedingly complicated, by using LTIR before the start of the season, the Canucks won’t be able to accumulate cap space during the season and any performance bonuses earned during the season will be applied to next season’s cap.

That’s the case for the $850,000 in performance bonuses earned by Andrei Kuzmenko last season. The Canucks used LTIR during training camp last year in order to be cap compliant — their much-ballyhooed “perfect” roster — which meant Kuzmenko’s bonuses carried over to this season, giving the Canucks $850,000 less in cap space.

Perhaps that’s why rumours persist that Tyler Myers will be traded even after Allvin shot down a report that he had a Myers deal on the table with the San Jose Sharks. If Myers can be moved without bringing back too much salary in the trade — Kevin Labanc’s $4.725 million cap hit would work, even if adding yet another expensive winger would make minimal sense — then the Canucks could find a way to be cap compliant without using LTIR, creating more flexibility for the future.

Let’s do a quick rundown of the Canucks’ depth by position.

Left Wing: too many cooks

Nils Höglander is no longer exempt from waivers, so it’s reasonable to expect him to be on the Canucks’ roster to start the season, even if a healthy Pearson would take up a spot on left wing that he might hope to grab. 

“The realistic expectation is that he makes that team as a bottom-six forward, I think from both sides,” said Höglander’s agent, Allain Roy, on Sportsnet 650.  

The plethora of left wingers pushes Dakota Joshua and Phillip Di Giuseppe down the depth chart but their versatility and cheap contracts should keep them on the roster to start the year and perhaps even in the lineup, given how much Rick Tocchet likes both players. 

Aidan McDonough will definitely be in tough to earn a spot on the roster and is almost guaranteed to start the season in the AHL barring a brilliant training camp and preseason. Depending on how tight the Canucks are for cap space, his $925,000 cap hit compared to Di Giuseppe’s league-minimum $775,000 cap hit could be a determining factor.

Josh Bloom and Arshdeep Bains will both be in the AHL to start the season but could be interesting call-up options in case of injuries. Bains won over the Abbotsford Canucks’ coaching staff and management, while Bloom has a versatile two-way game that ought to transition well to professional hockey.

Right Wing: expensive third-liner

Seeing a $4.95 million winger show up as the Canucks’ third-most expensive right wing illustrates one of the team’s spending inefficiencies, even as Andrei Kuzmenko’s $5 million deal could prove to be their most efficient contract if he can perform again like a first-line winger alongside Elias Pettersson.

If Myers can’t be traded, the Canucks could look to move one of Brock Boeser or Conor Garland to free up some cap space. Otherwise, they’ll have one of the league’s most expensive third-line wingers. 

Vasily Podkolzin has a lot to prove after a rocky start to his NHL career. With just 33 points through 118 NHL games, Podkolzin hasn’t yet lived up to his 10th-overall draft position, especially when Matthew Boldy (102 points in 128 games) and Cole Caufield (84 points in 123 games) were the next two forwards picked after Podkolzin in 2019. Podkolzin could lose his spot to another right winger like Linus Karlsson or to a left winger swapping sides like Höglander.

Danila Klimovich will likely spend another full season in the AHL before he’s ready to make the jump.

Jack Studnicka’s primary path to making the Canucks’ roster is the fact that his cap hit is below the current league minimum. If pennies need to be pinched to sneak below the salary cap, Studnicka could make the team out of camp.

Centre: Miller and Pettersson better stay healthy

J.T. Miller’s new contract has kicked in, making him the most expensive player on the Canucks, at least until next season when Elias Pettersson has a new contract. 

Teddy Blueger and Nils Åman are likely to battle for the third-line centre spot, even if both are a better fit as fourth-line centres. Tristen Nielsen, who impressed in Abbotsford, gives the Canucks some bottom-six depth, while Max Sasson has the potential to be a speedy, bottom-six centre as well. 

The Canucks would really like it if Aatu Räty can stay at centre rather than become yet another winger in their system. They would really, really like it if he could be a legitimate third-line centre but that might not happen this season. 

Sheldon Dries is the closest thing to top-six centre depth on the Canucks’ roster. If one of Pettersson or Miller gets injured, the Canucks will be in real trouble unless Räty takes a major step forward in his development.

Left Defence: training camp battle incoming

Quinn Hughes is very good, as is his contract. 

The assumption is that one of Carson Soucy or Ian Cole will swap over to their off side to play with Hughes on the top pairing, most likely Cole as he has far more experience playing a top-four role than Soucy. Asking Soucy to not only step up into a top-four role but to do so on his off side would be asking a lot.

Jack Rathbone is beginning to age out of being a prospect and has yet to break through to the NHL. Next season might be his best chance, but he’ll have plenty of competition and the most expensive contract among that competition, even if only by a little bit.

Akito Hirose has a decent shot at making the Canucks’ third pairing. He has a cheap contract barely above league minimum and impressed in his brief NHL audition this past season. Still, he might benefit from starting the season in the AHL and the Canucks have lots of other options.

Matt Irwin is a solid bet as a seventh defenceman, while Christian Wolanin led all AHL defencemen in scoring last season and looked like he belonged in the NHL when he got called up. With their league-minimum contracts, they could make the Canucks out of camp ahead of Rathbone and Hirose.

As for Guillaume Brisebois, he’s unlikely to outbattle the competition to make the Canucks out of camp but the team appreciates him as a loyal footsoldier and he could get a call-up again next season.

Right Defence: uncertain depth

Considering he’s likely to start the season on the third pairing, Tyler Myers’ cap hit sticks out like a sore thumb. That said, the Canucks shouldn’t do anything rash to move him. Some time on a sheltered third pairing might make him look good enough to attract trade offers at next season’s trade deadline instead — right-side defencemen with size are always in demand.

Filip Hronek has a great contract, for now. The trouble with Hronek is that he’s heading into the final year of his contract and is in line for a big raise. That’s a problem for next offseason, though. For now, he’s very cost-effective for a top-four defenceman.

Regrettably, it seems unlikely Tucker Poolman will ever play again, as his long-term issues with migraines have stymied multiple attempts to return to game action. 

Cole McWard would do well with some time in the AHL but he showed promise in his five-game audition last season. He’s a little more expensive than some of the other options on the right side, however.

Filip Johansson will be in Abbotsford for his first professional season in North America. At this point, expectations should be kept low for the former Minnesota Wild first-round pick.

If Soucy and Cole struggle on their off sides, maybe Noah Juulsen could find himself back on the Canucks’ top pairing with Hughes. His league-minimum contract will certainly make it easier for him to get called up on the right side.

Jett Woo nearly got written off but found his game with Abbotsford last season and earned a one-year contract. That year is likely to be spent in the AHL again but there’s a chance he could work his way up the depth chart past McWard, Johansson, and Juulsen.

Goaltender: backup in the air

Thatcher Demko is a steal at $5 million and still has three years remaining on that contract. The only question is if he’ll get overworked this season, as who his backup will be remains uncertain.

Even if he wasn’t the most expensive of the remaining goaltenders, Nikita Tolopilo would be in the AHL or ECHL as he’s coming over for his first professional season in North America.

Arturs Silovs makes only a hair over league minimum, so that shouldn’t keep him from earning the backup job behind Demko. What might keep him from earning the job is the need for more starts to continue developing. Don’t be surprised if Silovs bounces between the AHL and NHL all season, getting spot starts during long homestands.

Zach Sawchenko was an interesting signing on the first day of free agency primarily because of what he is not: an NHL backup. The Canucks either didn’t want to spend any of their precious cap space on an experienced backup or truly believe in Silovs — perhaps both. Sawchenko will likely back up someone in Abbotsford.

Finally, Spencer Martin is cheap, with a contract coming in below the current league minimum. He found his game again in the AHL after struggling as an NHL starter with Demko injured. With his contract and a need to get Silovs starts, the odds are good that Martin could find himself back in the NHL as Demko’s backup to start next season.