With the NHL trade deadline still over a month away, debate has already started about whether the Vancouver Canucks should go all-in on this surprising season that sees them at the top of the NHL standings.
It feels like the Canucks could truly just be a piece or two away from being not just a Stanley Cup contender but perhaps even a Cup favourite. It’s not just the fans — the players are apparently talking trades as well, with Quinn Hughes reportedly suggesting to management that they should target Chris Tanev, his old defence partner.
A significant trade would be a signal to both the fanbase and the players that the Canucks’ management team truly believes they can win the Stanley Cup this year.
There are some, however, who believe the Canucks shouldn’t do anything at all.
That’s not referring to the most pessimistic fans who think the Canucks aren’t good enough to win the Cup even with a major trade. Rather, it’s referring to the most optimistic fans who think they’re good enough without one.
After all, why would you want to mess with a good thing? The Canucks are cruising with their current combination of players, so why risk ruining that chemistry? There’s a special magic something about this season and it’s understandable why some fans would be scared that tweaking just one thing might destroy the magic and reveal that it’s all a facade.
While a big trade would be a sign that the team is “going for it,” the Canucks could spin standing pat at the trade deadline as a vote of confidence in the players.
A cautionary tale: the 2012-13 Canucks
Messing with team chemistry is a legitimate concern. Former Canuck Kevin Bieksa claims that he’s seen the repercussions of a chemistry-destroying trade personally.
“We brought a guy in, it ruined all our chemistry, and we lost in the first round, swept,” said Bieksa in 2022. While he didn’t specify which player — or even if he was referring to the Canucks or the Anaheim Ducks — he was likely referring to when the 2012-13 Canucks traded for Derek Roy.
The Canucks traded prospect Kevin Connauton and a second-round pick to the Dallas Stars that season for Roy, who was meant to shore up the team’s centre depth with Kesler injured for most of the season. Filling in as the team’s second-line centre, he managed just six points in 12 regular season games, then just one point, an assist, in the team’s four-game sweep at the hands of the San Jose Sharks in the first round of the 2013 playoffs.
The issues evidently ran deeper than just his production, however, as the phrase “ruined all our chemistry” suggests he had a deleterious effect on the entire team.
But that cautionary tale shouldn’t dissuade the Canucks from making a potentially chemistry-altering trade this year. In fact, there are many reasons why making a big trade would help give the Canucks their best chance at winning the Stanley Cup.
Standing pat can cost a team the Stanley Cup
Let’s start with a cautionary tale in the other direction: the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning.
At the 2019 trade deadline, the Lightning were in first place in the NHL. Actually, not just in first place — they were miles ahead, 17 points up on the next-best team, with an incredible plus-81 goal differential.
Accordingly, the Lightning were pretty confident in their team, confident enough to not make any changes at all at the deadline, letting it pass without a single trade. The decision was greeted with widespread acclaim, with pundits around the league praising them for doing nothing.
The Lightning went on to win the Presidents’ Trophy for the NHl’s best record in the regular season and were subsequently swept in the first round in a stunning upset by the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Would a trade have made a difference for the Lightning in that first-round ouster? Maybe, maybe not. But it certainly seems like Lightning general manager Julien Brisebois felt it was a mistake to stand pat.
At the 2020 trade deadline, the Lightning were once again one of the top teams in the NHL, this time in second place behind the Boston Bruins. Instead of standing pat, they swung for the fences, trading away not one, but two first-round picks, as well as former first-round pick Nolan Foote to acquire Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow.
The two centres ended up playing on the wing on a dominant third line with Yanni Gourde. Goodrow became the team’s primary penalty killer, leading Lightning forwards in shorthanded ice time in the playoffs, while Coleman was third among Lightning forwards in shorthanded ice time and also had 13 points in 25 games in the playoffs.
With their two trade deadline acquisitions playing a key role, the Lightning went on to win the 2020 Stanley Cup.
Recent Cup winners have made trades at the deadline
The approach of the 2019-20 Lightning has generally been the approach of Stanley Cup winners over the years, with the vast majority of Cup winners adding a significant piece or two at or near the trade deadline. In doing so, those teams took the risk of ruining team chemistry to address their teams’ needs.
Last season, along with a couple of minor moves, the Vegas Golden Knights added Ivan Barbashev about a week ahead of the trade deadline. Barbashev played on their first line in the playoffs alongside Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault and had 7 goals and 18 points in 22 playoff games to help them win the Cup.
At the 2022 trade deadline, the Colorado Avalanche made several trades, adding Josh Manson, Artturi Lehkonen, Nico Sturm, and Andrew Cogliano.
While Sturm and Cogliano chipped in points from the fourth line, Manson and Lehkonen played larger roles. Manson solidified Colorado’s third pairing on a defence that allowed just 27.9 shots against per game, the lowest in the playoffs. Lehkonen played the biggest role in the playoffs, scoring eight goals, including the Cup-winning goal in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final.
In 2021, it was the Lightning again, who paid through the nose to acquire defenceman David Savard, sending a first-round pick, third-round pick, and fourth-round pick to the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings as part of a three-team deal.
Savard was one of the biggest fish in the 2021 trade market and the Lightning paid handsomely to acquire the gritty defensive defenceman. While Savard ended up on the third pairing for the Lightning’s playoff run, as the injuries the Lightning were worried about never struck their defence, it was still a significant addition.
It’s only in 2019 that we find a Cup winner that didn’t make any additions at the trade deadline: the Cinderella St. Louis Blues. That makes sense, as the Blues had only recently moved into a playoff position, climbing from the basement of the Western Conference with an 11-game winning streak.
Jim Rutherford has a history of significant deadline deals
For more examples of Cup-winning teams making key trades ahead of the NHL trade deadline, we can look to the Canucks’ president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford and his former team, the Pittsburgh Penguins. While Patrik Allvin is the general manager of the Canucks, Rutherford's fingerprints are all over the current Canucks team.
In 2016, Rutherford’s only actual move at the deadline was to acquire Justin Schultz for a pittance from the Edmonton Oilers. While Schultz played limited minutes on the third pairing in the Penguins’ 2016 Cup run, he played a bigger role the following season.
But Rutherford’s big addition came a few weeks before the deadline when he made a major change to his roster, trading David Perron (and Adam Clendening) to the Anaheim Ducks for Carl Hagelin. Hagelin was a huge pickup, playing a crucial role on the HBK line — the Penguins’ clutch second line. Hagelin had 16 points in 24 games in the playoffs while also playing a significant role on the penalty kill en route to the Stanley Cup.
To be fair, the Penguins needed a shake-up to their chemistry at the time of the trade, as they were sitting a few points out of a playoff spot. But that wasn’t the case in 2017.
At the 2017 trade deadline, the Penguins were a top-five team in the NHL and could have justified standing pat. Instead, Rutherford traded for two defencemen, Mark Streit and Ron Hainsey.
From the outside, both defencemen were expected to just be depth and not necessarily play a major role. That was true for Streit, who only played three games in the playoffs, but Hainsey ended up on the Penguins’ top pairing alongside Brian Dumoulin during their playoff run, winning the Stanley Cup in the first playoff appearance of the 36-year-old’s career.
What didn’t initially look like a major addition ended up being a significant one and Rutherford wasn’t worried about messing with team chemistry in adding Hainsey. Of course, Hainsey was a veteran with a wealth of wisdom and leadership ability, so it was unlikely he’d upset the apple cart.
In other words, while potential chemistry concerns should be a consideration when looking at potential trades, the Canucks can’t be scared of ruining a good thing if they’re serious about making a run for the Stanley Cup this year. Apart from the 2019 Blues, past Cup winners have all addressed weaknesses in their lineup at or near the trade deadline, often by making major changes.
Making a significant trade would be a much bigger vote of confidence than standing pat.
