After 41 games, the Vancouver Canucks are not where anyone expected them to be.
Heading into the 2023-24 season, the majority of pundits, experts, and analytical models predicted the Canucks would miss the playoffs, if only just barely. Even Canucks fans weren’t very hopeful, with 54.7% of respondents to a Vancouver is Awesome poll projecting the Canucks would fall short of the postseason.
Instead, the Canucks are 27-11-3 at the halfway mark of the season, just one point behind the similarly-surprising Winnipeg Jets for first place in the NHL. Just 4.2% of respondents to the VIA poll predicted the Canucks would win or come close to the Presidents’ Trophy but if the second half of the Canucks’ season is anything like the first, they’ll be in the hunt.
The Canucks also boast the best goal differential in the NHL at plus-54 in all situations and their underlying puck possession numbers have steadily improved to the point that sustainability is not the concern it once was.
Their 51.5% adjusted corsi and 51.4% adjusted expected goals aren’t at the top of the league by any means but they’re solidly above average. Combine that with their elite finishing and goaltending and the Canucks are looking like a dangerous team heading into the back half of the season.
As a team, then, the Canucks have excelled. But what about their performance as individuals?
It’s time to grade the 2023-24 Canucks based on the first 41 games. While they’ll be graded on a slight curve, as some players have higher expectations than others, there are limits to that curve. A fourth-line forward that excels in their role is not going to get the same grade as a first-line forward that excels in their role — that just wouldn’t be right.
Let’s also keep in mind that C’s and D’s are passing grades, though outright failing grades are unlikely after the Canucks’ incredible first half of the season.
Grades will be based on both the eye test and statistics pulled from NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey, PuckIQ, and HockeyViz.
We’ll go by alphabetical order by last name, starting with…
Teddy Blueger - B
After missing the start of the season, Teddy Blueger quickly found his rhythm on a third line with Conor Garland and Dakota Joshua, earning the nickname of the Good Job Boys because it incorporates the first initial of their last names and it’s also what they hear every time they go back to the bench. Sure, the nickname is used by pretty much only me, but still.
Blueger has been solidly productive with 17 points in 27 games, which is already more points than he had all of last season between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Vegas Golden Knights. He also boasts the second-highest expected goals percentage (xGF%) on the Canucks behind Garland.
He’s also been solid on the penalty kill and has taken on a larger role on the PK as the season has progressed.
The one thing keeping Blueger from an even higher grade than a B is not his point production but that he and his linemates have primarily been feasting on lesser match-ups. Head coach Rick Tocchet has directly talked about getting that line out against opponents’ third lines and getting the better of that match-up.
That’s not a bad thing by any means but it will be interesting to see if Blueger and the Good Job Boys can handle being a match-up line if the Lotto Line sticks together long-term.
Brock Boeser - A+
It’s been an incredible bounce-back season for Brock Boeser, who has already surpassed his total goals from the last four seasons. Boeser had just 18 goals all of last season; he has 25 halfway through this season.
Boeser is not only leading the Canucks in goalscoring but also in the top five in NHL goalscoring. While he’s fallen behind a bit in the race for the Rocket Richard, he’s still solidly on pace for 50 goals, which would smash his previous career high.
Instead of just depending on his shot, Boeser has diversified his goalscoring efforts by finding more ways to get to soft areas of the ice, hunt rebounds, and bang in backdoor plays.
I’ll be honest: I was tempted to knock Boeser down to an A from an A+ because he’s shown some warts in his defensive game while used in a match-up role but the Canucks have still out-scored their opponents 36-to-22 when he’s been on the ice at 5-on-5. Sure, his PDO is unsustainably high but you may as well celebrate excellence while it’s here.
Ian Cole - C+
Ian Cole has been good for the Canucks on the ice. Good, but not great.
While the Canucks have been out-shot with Cole on the ice, it hasn’t been by an unreasonable amount, and the Canucks have still out-scored their opponents with Cole on the ice at 5-on-5, though not by much. He’s been solid in his own end of the ice, playing a predictable, physical brand of defence, with a team-leading 79 blocked shots.
Cole leads the Canucks in shorthanded ice time and he’s been a decent, though not exceptional penalty killer. He has one of the higher rates of shots and goals against on the penalty kill, though his numbers are improving as the Canucks have shuffled some of the forwards in front of him.
In other words, Cole has been just fine on the ice, which gets a just fine grade of a C.
Where Cole has been great is off the ice, where his experience as a veteran of two Stanley Cup-winning teams has been invaluable in keeping the Canucks even-keeled and focused. It comes through when talking to the players: Cole is a calming presence, with a lot of wisdom to impart and the willingness to speak up.
That off-the-ice element, however, is a lot harder to quantify than what happens on the ice. But I’ll still bump his grade up to a C+.
Thatcher Demko - A
After a shaky start to last season, Thatcher Demko has excelled this season in the improved defensive environment brought on by Rick Tocchet’s system-heavy approach. He has three shutouts already this season after just three total in his entire career and he’s second in the NHL in quality starts behind only Connor Hellebuyck.
There’s a reason why many sportsbooks now have Demko as the Vezina frontrunner, as he’s been the solid foundation for the Canucks’ exceptional start to the season, providing half of the team’s NHL-leading PDO at 5-on-5.
The only thing that keeps me from giving Demko an A+ is the sense that there’s still another level to his game. His .916 save percentage is good but still well below the save percentages at the top of the charts, like Connor Hellebuyck’s .923 and Cam Talbot’s .922, and he’s had a couple of shaky performances where he hasn’t quite played to the standard he’s set for both fans and himself.
So, don’t consider the lack of “+” as a judgement on Demko but instead an optimistic hope that he can be even better in the second half.
Casey DeSmith - A-
Coming to the Canucks in a trade from the Montreal Canadiens, Casey DeSmith has been remarkably reliable as a backup to Demko. He’s posted nearly identical numbers to Demko, with the same .916 save percentage.
DeSmith has given the Canucks confidence to play him a lot, with 12 starts to Demko’s 29, and he’s delivered with a 7-3-2 record in those starts. He’s been fantastic for the Canucks, consistently giving them a chance to win.
He gets an A- both because he can’t get the same grade as the team’s number one considering their very similar performances and also because other backups for top teams around the league have been even better than DeSmith.
Phil Di Giuseppe - D
When Phil Di Giuseppe started the season with J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, it was a major opportunity for the veteran winger but also a major challenge. Sure, it meant getting to play with two of the Canucks’ best players but it also meant regularly playing in a match-up role against the best players on the other team.
Unfortunately, Di Giuseppe wasn’t really up for that challenge.
Through the first half of the season, Di Giuseppe has the worst corsi percentage and expected goals percentage on the Canucks, indicating the team has been badly out-shot and out-chanced when he’s been on the ice at 5-on-5. By PuckIQ’s Woodmoney statistic, Di Giuseppe has been the Canucks’ worst player when matched up against elite competition.
It just wasn’t the right fit for Di Giuseppe, who has been a frequent healthy scratch after that early opportunity.
That said, he’s actually been quite good on the penalty kill, with the lowest rate of power play goals against on the Canucks. In a bottom-six role, Di Giuseppe should still be an effective player for the Canucks in the second half of the season. For the first half, though, Di Giuseppe gets a D.
Mark Friedman - C-
I quite liked Mark Friedman’s game early in the season, as he formed a solid partnership with Ian Cole on the third pairing. His corsi and expected goals are both north of 50% at 50.4% and 53.4%, respectively.
So, why the C- grade?
It became clear over time that there was some significant sheltering happening with Friedman, as the only Canucks who spent a lower percentage of their ice time against elite competition were Jack Studnicka and young call-ups Akito Hirose and Cole McWard. It was also clear why, as there were too many times where Friedman would be chasing in the defensive zone, which he could get away with against third and fourth lines but turned into dangerous chances against top lines.
He also barely played on the penalty kill and struggled when he did, making it tough to justify keeping him in the lineup over Noah Juulsen, who proved himself to be one of the Canucks’ best penalty killers.
Friedman is still a nice depth option for the Canucks but his limitations made it harder for the coaching staff to deploy their defence pairings and his grade suffers as a result.
Conor Garland - B+
Garland is the engine for the Good Job Boys and the Canucks’ most effective puck possession player at 5-on-5. It’s remarkable how he maintains possession against bigger, stronger players along the boards, spinning and squirming out of harm’s way to create shots and chances.
Garland leads the Canucks in corsi percentage and expected goals percentage at 5-on-5, and the Canucks have out-scored their opponents 28-to-14 when he’s on the ice at 5-on-5. In other words, Garland massively tilts the ice for the Canucks and has played a big role in their improved play at 5-on-5 in recent games.
Only a couple of things are keeping Garland from an A grade. The first is that he and his linemates face pretty weak competition and the second is that he only has five goals this season, a 10-goal pace that would be the lowest of his career. Given his $4.95 million cap hit, it’s reasonable to expect more goals from Garland and they’re entirely likely to come in the second half.
Akito Hirose - I
Akito Hirose impressed with his poise in a brief audition last season but has only gotten into three games for the Canucks this season, so he gets an Incomplete grade.
What might be more concerning is Hirose’s complete lack of production in the AHL, with zero points in 13 games, though he’s also dealt with injuries.
Nils Höglander - B-
This was one of the toughest grades to give out because Nils Höglander’s season has been all over the place. He’s been scratched, he’s been on the fourth line, and he’s been on the first line. He’s scored highlight-reel goals and been a force on the forecheck but he’s also made significant defensive mistakes and put up mediocre underlying numbers despite mostly being sheltered from tough competition.
And yet, there’s no denying the production. Despite limited ice time Höglander is fourth on the Canucks in goalscoring with 12 goals in 39 games, giving him one of the best goals per 60 minutes in the entire NHL.
When he’s on his game, Höglander is a buzzsaw on the boards in a similar manner to Garland and there’s a sense that there’s an even better player just under the surface that the Canucks are trying to unlock.
Some might think a B- is too high a grade, some might say it’s too low. Hopefully, that means it’s the right grade.
Filip Hronek - A
The plan when the Canucks acquired Filip Hronek was not necessarily to play him with Quinn Hughes. It was thought that he would likely anchor a second pairing, giving the Canucks a stronger top-four.
But Hronek has been a great fit for Hughes, giving the Canucks’ number one defenceman a partner who can think the game at a high level and has the skill to execute plays and putting to lie the thought that Hughes needs a physical, stay-at-home defenceman on the right side.
Hronek has played big minutes for the Canucks and has 34 points in 41 games, good for seventh among NHL defencemen in scoring and putting him on pace to smash his career high in points.
Only a couple of things keep Hronek from an A+. One is unavoidable: he’s being carried by Hughes. Yes, he’s contributing too but he wouldn’t be on pace for 68 points this season without Hughes. To whit, he leads the Canucks in secondary assists.
Hronek has also struggled at times in the defensive zone, losing a lot of battles below the goal line and along the boards. As part of that, he’s also been on the ice for the highest rate of unblocked shots against on the penalty kill on the Canucks.
None of those things keep him from being a major positive contributor to the Canucks’ success, so he still gets an A.
Quinn Hughes - A+
Was there any doubt? Of course, Quinn Hughes gets an A+. He leads all NHL defencemen in scoring with 51 points in 41 games. He’s added a new dimension to his game by becoming a goalscoring threat, second among all NHL defencemen with 11 goals. He leads the Canucks with 24:30 per game in ice time, playing in all situations.
Hughes is a puck possession beast, with a 55.2% corsi that is second on the Canucks only to Garland, who faces weaker competition. The Canucks have out-scored their opponents 57-to-29 with Hughes on the ice at 5-on-5.
Hughes shouldn’t just be the favourite to win the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenceman; he should be a favourite to win the Hart Trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player.
Dakota Joshua - B+
Last season, Dakota Joshua was named the Canucks’ unsung hero. Halfway through this season, he’s already matched his 11 goals from last season and is on pace for 40 points from the third line.
Joshua is an essential component of the Good Job Boys, providing the physicality of a true power forward. His 119 hits is good for third in the NHL, as he finishes both checks and chances for the Canucks.
To top it off, Joshua has also become one of the Canucks’ best penalty killers, using sound positioning and quick feet to effectively disrupt opposing power plays.
The only thing keeping Joshua from creeping into “A” territory is the same as it is for his linemates: they’re not facing tough competition. Joshua has struggled at times when facing top lines outside of the penalty kill, so that’s the next step in his evolution as a player: can he become a match-up forward?
Noah Juulsen - C
Early in the season, this grade for Noah Juulsen would have been an F. He had some significant struggles, particularly at 5-on-5, and dragged his defence partners down with him.
But then he completely turned his game around and has become a legitimate asset for the Canucks, even if he's the team's seventh defenceman when everyone is healthy. His penalty killing is top-notch but he's become more than just a PK specialist, as he's now a legitimate low-event option for the Canucks on the bottom pair at 5-on-5.
Juulsen still provides next to nothing offensively but that's not the worst thing for a third-pairing defenceman. When he's on the ice at 5-on-5, the opposing team simply does not create dangerous chances.
I can't completely dismiss his terrible start to the season — he still has some of the worst underlying numbers on the Canucks overall — but his improved play gets him up to a C grade.
Linus Karlsson - I
It’s been somewhat surprising to see Linus Karlsson suit up for four games with the Canucks this season, as it seemed more likely that the likes of Vasily Podkolzin, Arshdeep Bains, Aatu Räty, or Sheldon Dries would be ahead of him on the depth chart.
Karlsson has been excellent in Abbotsford, though, with 23 points in 25 games, and the Canucks clearly like him. We could see more of him if and when injuries strike but, for now, he gets an Incomplete.
Andrei Kuzmenko - C-
It’s been a disappointing season for Andrei Kuzmenko, whose finish has seemingly abandoned him. He has just 8 goals and 19 points in 35 games, a 17-goal pace if he plays every game for the rest of the season.
That’s no guarantee, as he’s been a healthy scratch multiple times. Tocchet clearly seems frustrated with Kuzmenko’s east-west tendencies in his north-south system. Whether it’s the forecheck or defensive zone coverage, Kuzmenko too often isn’t where Tocchet wants him to be. If he was scoring, that would be forgivable, but he’s not, so it isn’t.
That said, Kuzmenko really hasn’t been that bad. He’s still a positive puck possession player and the Canucks have still out-scored their opponents with him on the ice. The first power play unit certainly looks better when he’s on it even if they’ve struggled to score recently and you have to think that the puck has to start going in for him again.
He’s actually looked pretty good on a line with Pius Suter and Ilya Mikheyev as the Canucks have loaded up the Lotto Line, so maybe there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. For now, Kuzmenko gets a C-.
Sam Lafferty - C+
Coming over in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Sam Lafferty has been a pleasant surprise for the Canucks. He has 9 goals and 18 points in 41 games, putting him on pace to smash his previous career highs.
Most of that production has come from the fourth line, though he’s also had stints alongside Elias Pettersson on the second line. While he wasn’t really a fit in a top-six role, he’s been good in the bottom-six, using his speed to create havoc in transition and on the forecheck. He’s also been decent in a penalty-killing role.
The one cause for concern is that Lafferty’s underlying numbers haven’t been great, with a 45.6% corsi that is better than only Nils Åman’s and Phil Di Giuseppe’s among Canucks forwards, while being relatively sheltered at 5-on-5. Being regularly out-chanced is not too unusual for a fourth line and it hasn’t cost the Canucks thanks to their goaltending but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Cole McWard - I
Heading into the season, it seemed like Cole McWard was going to play a much bigger role for the Canucks than he actually has. It’s like how growing up, it always seemed like quicksand was going to be a major issue as an adult and yet I’ve never once encountered it in real life.
McWard has played just one game for the Canucks, playing just 9:05 in that one game. He gets an Incomplete.
Ilya Mikheyev - B
Ilya Mikheyev has great underlying numbers this season, with a solid 53.0% corsi and 54.7% expected goals. He’s also been relatively productive and is sixth on the Canucks with 22 points in 37 games. For a winger coming off knee surgery who is so dependent on speed, Mikheyev has been pretty good.
But seeing Elias Pettersson excel alongside the Lotto Line over the past few games has been eye-opening, not just to how much that line has dominated at 5-on-5 but also to how much Pettersson’s linemates have been holding him back at 5-on-5.
Unfortunately, Mikheyev has been Pettersson’s primary linemate and that makes me question if he’s really been the right fit. Should Mikheyev have more than 10 goals while playing with an elite playmaker like Pettersson?
For now, Mikheyev gets a B.
J.T. Miller - A+
This has been a phenomenal season so far for J.T. Miller, who sits seventh in NHL scoring with 55 points in 41 games, on pace for 110 points. His playmaking has been next-level, as he leads the entire NHL in primary assists.
He’s also the team’s primary mover on the power play, leading the team with 22 power play points.
Most impressively, his non-power-play production has come while playing in a match-up role, spending a higher percentage of his ice time against elite competition than any other Canuck.
The only lingering question is whether he should be in that match-up role. It’s worked out very well for the Canucks so far, as they’ve outscored their opponents 35-to-23 when Miller’s been on the ice at 5-on-5, but there are definitely some potential red flags in the underlying numbers in terms of the high-danger chances the Canucks give up with Miller on the ice.
The Canucks have already started to limit Miller’s time on the penalty kill, likely because the numbers were not good for him in that area, so we’ll see if the numbers influence a change in who plays more match-up minutes down the stretch, particularly if the Lotto Line stays together as an offensively-focused trio.
Still, there’s no denying that Miller deserves an A+ for his first half of the season.
Tyler Myers - B-
Tyler Myers has had his visible struggles here and there, particularly early in the season, but he’s been legitimately quite good overall. His underlying numbers are similar to those of Ian Cole — not great but also not terrible — with the added context that Myers has spent a lot of time in a match-up role.
Maybe Myers isn’t the best fit for a match-up role but it also seems like that role focuses his mind and helps him play a steadier, less chaotic game. He’s even found a bit of his old offensive game, with 18 points through 41 games, on pace for his best point totals in six seasons.
Using Myers as a shutdown defenceman might come back to bite the Canucks in the second half of the season but he’s done an admirable job in the first half and gets a B-.
Elias Pettersson - A+
With 20 goals and 53 points through 41 games, Elias Pettersson continues to confirm that he’s among the elite players of his generation. He’s having a phenomenal season despite lugging around either a struggling Kuzmenko or a fourth-line forward on his wing for most of the season.
There’s a chance for magic every time Pettersson steps over the boards but even when there’s no magic, there’s diligent hard work and a physical game that still seems to catch opponents off-guard.
Pettersson has also been quite good on the penalty kill and draws a lot of penalties himself to put the Canucks on the power play, where he’s also been a focal point, second on the team in power play points with 18.
There’s no doubt: of course, Pettersson gets an A+.
Carson Soucy - B
When he’s been healthy, Carson Soucy has been great. He’s cool and calm under pressure, moves the puck well, and uses his size and reach effectively. He’s played a lot in a match-up role as a shutdown defenceman and he’s been solid in that role, with a respectable 48.9% corsi and the lowest rate of goals against at 5-on-5 among regular Canucks defencemen.
At the same time, his work on the penalty kill hasn’t been quite as good and his goals against has been heavily influenced by an incredible .957 save percentage by the goaltenders behind him at 5-on-5.
It’s a small sample size, so we’ll see how things shake out in the second half for Soucy. For now, he gets a B.
Pius Suter - A-
I’ve been very impressed by Pius Suter this season, as he plays a quiet, smart game that involves being in the right position at the right time every time.
Suter’s 53.3% corsi is third on the team behind Garland and Hughes, while playing more often against elite competition than Garland. The defensive numbers are team-leading, as he’s been on the ice for the lowest rate of shots on goal and scoring chances against on the Canucks, as well as the lowest rate of goals against.
What’s been most impressive about Suter is how he’s able to play seemingly any role. Want him to centre the fourth line? Done. Need a winger for a top-six line? Suter’s your guy. What about a second-line centre so the team can load up the Lotto Line? Absolutely. He’s a real-life Swiss army knife.
Limited to just 27 games by injury, Suter still has 8 goals and 12 points, on pace for 20 goals this season. For a guy bouncing around lines with few consistent linemates, that’s solid production.
Maybe I’m being too bullish giving Suter an A- but I’ve really liked his game.
Nikita Zadorov - C+
Plugged immediately into a shutdown role after coming to the Canucks via a trade with the Calgary Flames, Nikita Zadorov has quickly fit into the team structure. His size, reach, and physical game have been noticeable every night
But some of the underlying numbers are suspect. Zadorov has the worst corsi percentage among Canucks defencemen at 44.0%, which is concerning.
That said, most of that comes from the offensive side. Zadorov hasn’t been able to move the puck up ice effectively but within the defensive zone, he’s been pretty solid, with the second-lowest rate of high-danger chances against on the team, behind only Noah Juulsen (seriously, it’s kind of insane how much Juulsen has improved).
There’s a bit of a wait-and-see element with Zadorov. Now that Soucy is back from injury and playing in a shutdown role with Myers, Zadorov might get some more favourable match-ups in the second half of the season, giving him a chance to showcase more of the shot that scored 14 goals for the Flames last season.
Nils Åman - D+
This is your regular reminder that “Å" comes near the end of the Swedish alphabet, so Nils Åman is in the correct place in alphabetical order here.
Åman is such a fascinating player to evaluate for me. His 43.6% corsi is bad. He’s the only Canucks forward to be out-scored this season at 5-on-5. He has 5 points in 18 games, giving him the second-lowest points per game among Canucks forwards ahead of only Di Giuseppe. He’s not particularly good in the faceoff circle, either.
And yet, there’s something there. He’s the definition of a low-event player. Sure, the Canucks don’t create much offensively when he’s on the ice but neither do the opposition. He’s got the lowest rate of expected goals against at 5-on-5 on the entire team.
Åman has also been decently effective on the penalty kill. And, every now and then, he shows flashes of playmaking skill that suggest he has another level.
It really feels like there’s more to Åman but it’s hard to deny that he has underwhelmed in the first half of the season. Maybe a D+ is harsh, I don’t know. That’s just where I land with him right now.
