Ethan Bear could be facing a bear market in contract negotiations with the Vancouver Canucks after an injury at the World Hockey Championship.
When the Canucks traded for Bear this past season, they wanted to re-sign him to a new contract right away. They acquired the defenceman near the end of October, sending a fifth-round pick to the Carolina Hurricanes for Bear after he had become a healthy scratch on the Hurricanes’ deep blue line. On the Canucks’ blue line, however, Bear immediately became the team’s top defenceman on the right side.
Bear, however, didn’t want to negotiate a new contract during the season. He wanted to focus solely on what was happening on the ice so he could reestablish his career after his struggles in Carolina.
“Vancouver’s wanted to talk to me about a contract since November,” said Bear. “For myself, I asked them actually, let’s put that off for the year. Let me focus on hockey.”
Bear might come to regret that decision, particularly in combination with another decision he made at the end of the season: to play for Team Canada at the 2023 World Hockey Championship.
Bear will miss six months after shoulder surgery
On the one hand, Bear got the absolutely unforgettable experience of not only representing his country in international competition but also bringing home a gold medal. On the other hand, Bear didn’t actually get to compete for that gold medal, as he suffered an upper-body injury late in Canada’s quarterfinal game against Finland.
That injury requires shoulder surgery that the Canucks say will keep him out for six months.
That timeline will keep Bear out of the Canucks’ lineup until mid-December, which is a potential problem for a team looking to get off to a significantly better start than they did last season. Bear’s absence might make the Canucks hesitant to try to dump Tyler Myers’ cap hit in a trade, as they might need him in the team’s top four with Bear out.
It also raises questions about Bear’s contract negotiations.
Canucks might hesitate to sign a multi-year deal
Bear is due a $2.2 million qualifying offer by June 30 in order to remain a restricted free agent (RFA) under the Canucks’ control. Before this injury, the Canucks might have looked to sign Bear to a multi-year deal — maybe a 3-4 year contract worth $2.5-$3 million per year — but the shoulder injury adds some uncertainty.
A surgery with a six-month recovery signifies a significant injury and it’s never entirely certain how a player will recover. Shoulder injuries can cause recurring issues in the future, leaving a player more prone to injury, or they could struggle to perform at the same level they did before the injury.
Maybe this won’t be the case for Bear — he might have no long-term issues following his surgery — but it’s something the Canucks have to consider as they look to turn the corner from nearly a decade of futility.
With that in mind, the Canucks could hope that Bear simply takes his $2.2 million qualifying offer — which is automatically for one year — and revisit their negotiations in a year, when he will still be an RFA.
The other possibility is that the Canucks don’t qualify Bear at all, as $2.2 million is a significant chunk of cap space to commit to a player undergoing shoulder surgery, even if it’s just for one year. If the Canucks have any concerns about Bear’s future, they might instead look to trade his rights or let him walk and try to replace him in free agency or the trade market.
The risk of playing in the World Championship
The complications created by Bear’s injury show why it can be risky to play in the World Hockey Championship without a contract, as this could have real implications for his future earnings in the NHL.
It’s ultimately why Elias Pettersson didn’t play for Team Sweden at this year’s tournament. Although his contract does run for one more year, Pettersson was seeking insurance to cover potential future earnings on his next contract, which is likely to be massive.
The Swedish Ice Hockey Federation was unwilling — or unable — to cover the hefty insurance premiums involved in insuring an unknown future contract, so Pettersson didn’t go to the tournament.
An injury at the World Hockey Championship was also partly to blame for Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s struggles this past season, said the veteran defenceman, who suffered a broken foot that limited his ability to train during the summer.
For Bear, winning gold with Team Canada may prove to be a career highlight, but it could put a damper on his NHL career.
