After the draft lottery, I momentarily fell into a nihilistic chasm akin to the one that claimed the writer of Ecclesiastes—“Meaningless! Meaningless! Utterly meaningless! Everything is meaningless.”
But the sunny weather has improved my disposition (I’ve moved on to Ecclesiastes 8:15) and it’s time to start looking ahead to the actual NHL draft, which is just seven excruciatingly long weeks away, to see where the Canucks find themselves after the draft lottery.
Unfortunately, where they find themselves is uncomfortably dependent on the Edmonton Oilers.
If the numbers had fallen a little differently, placing the Canucks in the top three, their choice would have essentially been made for them. The order of the top three is all-but set: Auston Matthews first, Patrik Laine, second, and Jesse Puljujarvi third. If the Canucks got into one of those spots, it would have been decided for them which franchise forward would be joining their roster.
If they were at fourth, the Canucks would have the pick of the rest of the prospects, like having the first overall pick of a lesser draft. If they prized Pierre-Luc Dubois, they could have him. Matthew Tkachuk? He’s theirs. Alexander Nylander? Yep. And if they wanted whichever defencemen they might have at the top of their draft list, they would have their pick of the litter.
But they’re not picking fourth. The Edmonton Oilers are. When the draft resets after the trinity of franchise players has been selected, the Oilers will have the first overall pick. Again. Sort of.
The Canucks are going to get a great player at fifth overall, but who they get is largely dependent on the Oilers. And the Oilers are going to be a massive wild card.
The Oilers biggest need is on defence and they could aim for one of Jakob Chychrun, Olli Juolevi, or Mikhail Sergachev at fourth overall, but that would be a reach. Instead, they could draft one of the three forwards—Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, or Alexander Nylander—and trade a roster player for defensive help.
Or the Oilers could trade the fourth overall pick for the defensive help they need and whichever team gets that pick will take Dubois, Tkachuk, Nylander, Chychrun, Juolevi, or Sergachev.
This shouldn’t be too complicated for Jim Benning and the Canucks management team, but it has to be a bit frustrating that so much is dependent on what a division rival will do. It seems like the Canucks just have to make their list and, if the Oilers select the player they wanted, just move down the list and select the next one. But things could get a bit more complicated.
From earlier comments from Benning, it seems clear that the Canucks have four forwards at the top of their draft list and, from later comments, that fourth forward is likely Dubois. The forward has the size, skating, and skill the Canucks covet in a future first-line centre. The problem is that many other teams want Dubois as well and he could be gone by the fifth overall pick, whether he is selected by the Oilers or by some other team that makes a trade to move up to fourth overall.
At that point, will the Canucks pick a defenceman at fifth overall when none of the defencemen in the draft have necessarily jumped out as a top-five pick? Will Benning go with a forward or will he trade down to select a defenceman with a lower pick and stockpile those extra draft picks that he wasn’t able to get at the trade deadline?
It all depends on Edmonton.
