In the upcoming 2024-25 season, J.T. Miller has a chance to become the second player in Vancouver Canucks history with two 100+ point seasons and the first to do it since Pavel Bure.
Or maybe Elias Pettersson will beat him to it.
Two seasons ago, Pettersson had a dominant 39-goal, 102-point season that landed him in the top ten in NHL scoring. For the first several months of last season, it looked like he was set to repeat, if not better, that performance. Through the end of January, Pettersson had 27 goals and 64 points in 49 games — an average of 0.55 goals and 1.31 points per game that would have seen him finish an 82-game season with 45 goals and 107 points.
Unfortunately, in the final few months of the season, his scoring fell off, and he managed just 7 goals and 25 points in his final 33 games. Instead of posting back-to-back 100+ point seasons, Pettersson finished the 2023-24 campaign with 89 points.
Part of the issue was a nagging knee injury he picked up in January that worsened as the season progressed. Another issue was a lack of quality linemates, as he played most of the season with the eternally snakebitten Ilya Mikheyev.
Presumably healthy again heading into the 2024-25 season and with the Canucks adding Jake DeBrusk and other wingers in free agency, Pettersson ought to be able to get back to that 100-point pace again. That’s particularly true given that he’s in the prime of his career at 25 years old.
Point projections for the 2024-25 season, however, seem to have their doubts.
Fantasy hockey point projections for the Canucks
I looked at point projections for the Canucks from five different fantasy hockey sources: ESPN, The Athletic, Elite Prospects, and u/DatsyukToZetterberg from the r/fantasyhockey subreddit. Their projections come from various statistical models designed to try to predict the unpredictable: how a player will perform in the coming season.
I took those five sources and averaged out the projections for the Canucks’ roster.
The general consensus is that Pettersson will likely lead the Canucks in goalscoring but Miller will lead the team in points. In addition, two of the projections predicted a 100+ point season for Miller — ESPN and The Hockey News — while just one, Elite Prospects, projected 100+ points for Pettersson.
Here are the projections from each source:
Elite Prospects is clearly the most bullish on Pettersson, with the guide suggesting that their 45-goal, 101-point projection is actually too modest for the franchise forward.
“Just in time for his monster new contract to kick in, the 25-year-old Swede will break out and be just the third Canucks player to tally 50 goals, and just the first to do so since Pavel Bure dipped 51 back in 1997-98,” reads Elite Prospects’ fantasy guide in their “hot takes” section.
The model used by DTZ, on the other hand, is the most bearish on Pettersson, projecting 33 goals and 82 points — still a point-per-game but not in the upper echelon of the game’s elite players.
That’s not to say that DTZ’s projections, which are a popular source for the fantasy hockey enthusiasts on Reddit, are low on the Canucks overall. If every Canuck hits the goal projection from DTZ’s projection, the Canucks as a team will score 285 goals, which would be the highest-scoring Canucks season since 1992-93.
Other noteworthy Canucks point projections
Aside from the projections for Miller and Pettersson, there are some other interesting numbers here.
While none of the projections believe Brock Boeser will score another 40+ goals, four of the five sources see him reaching 30 again, with Elite Prospects the highest at 37 goals and ESPN the lowest at 27. A regression certainly seems reasonable, as he'll be hard-pressed to repeat his 19.6% shooting percentage from last season.
Jake DeBrusk sees the most variation in projections, ranging from 23 goals and 46 points according to ESPN up to 34 goals and 68 points from Elite Prospects. The projections from The Athletic and Elite Prospects seem to be adjusting more for his potential teammates with the Canucks than the projections from the other sources.
DeBrusk spent most of last season on a line with Charlie Coyle, whose 60 points were a career high. Going from a 60-point centre to a couple of 100-point centres in Pettersson or Miller means DeBrusk should see a jump in points, with 30 goals easily within reach.
The projection I’m most uncertain about is for Daniel Sprong, with projections averaging out to 43.2 points for the winger. That makes sense considering he’s coming off back-to-back 40+ point seasons but it feels like there’s some boom-or-bust potential with Sprong.
If Sprong steps up his defensive game — something he pledged to do after discussions with Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet — he could find himself on a line with Elias Pettersson, who he’s already friends with. That would be a prime position to break out in a big way. If Sprong struggles defensively — and he’s had some significant struggles — he could find himself out of the lineup altogether.
So, here’s my Sprong prediction: he won’t score in the 40-point range. My best guess is he’ll either score 50+ points or he’ll score 20-30 points and get sent down to the AHL or get traded.
Finally, the Quinn Hughes projections are interesting. All but Elite Prospects are projecting a regression from Quinn Hughes after his career-high 92 points last season, with three different sources landing on 86 points for the Canucks’ captain.
While a regression seems pretty reasonable, here’s my boldest prediction: Hughes beats both Pettersson and Miller to 100 points this season.
