Some of the Vancouver Canucks’ biggest draft successes have come from two sources: Sweden, the source of Elias Pettersson, Mattias Öhlund, Alex Edler, and the Sedins, and the NCAA, the source of Ryan Kesler, Brock Boeser, and Quinn Hughes.
In the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, the Canucks could get the best of both worlds: a Swede who is on his way to the NCAA.
Tom Willander was born and raised in Sweden and spent the past season with Rögle BK, spending much of it in the under-20 Nationell league. Next season, however, he’ll be heading to Boston University to develop in college hockey.
Taking Willander out to dinner
Willander is one of several right-handed defencemen projected to get selected in the first round along with David Reinbacher, Axel Sandin Pellikka, and Oliver Bonk. While the best of the group is thought to be Reinbacher, who the Canucks should strongly consider if he’s available, it’s likely that he will be gone before the Canucks pick 11th overall.
There’s a general consensus that Sandin Pellikka is the next best defenceman on the board after Reinbacher, though others are very high on Simashev. The Canucks, however, might be more interested in Willander.
According to The Athletic’s Harman Dayal, the Canucks took Willander out for dinner after the NHL Combine in Buffalo, which is typically a sign of a team’s keen interest in a prospect, as it gives them more time to get to know a player beyond the brief interview time allotted at the Combine itself. The Canucks flew Elias Pettersson out to Vancouver after the Combine in 2017, for instance.
The Canucks took other players out for dinner as well — at the least, forwards Nate Danielson and Colby Barlow — but not Sandin Pellikka, which strongly suggests they’re not considering the talented offensive defenceman.
The Canucks’ interest in Willander is interesting because, for most of the season, he was projected to be a second-round pick, or maybe late in the first round rather than just outside the top ten where the Canucks will be picking. Some public draft rankings still had him as a second-round pick in recent months, such as Dobber Prospects, FC Hockey, and Draft Prospects Hockey.
Willander made a late charge up a lot of draft boards, however, particularly after an excellent performance at the World Under-18 Championship, where he showcased his well-rounded jack-of-all-trades game.
There are those who are significantly higher on Willander than others, such as TSN’s Craig Button, who doesn’t just have him in the first round but inside his top ten at eighth overall.
“He’s confident with the puck, he’s quick,” says Craig Button, calling him a player that “can carry a game.”
“He’s an everywhere-on-the-ice player – defensive zone, offensive zone, in transition, penalty killing, power play, against the best players,” Button adds.
Are the Canucks similarly high on Willander, enough to take him 11th overall? Let’s take a look at what sets Willander apart.
"He’s a nightmare to play against."
Willander’s defensive game starts with his superb skating, which he combines with solid size at 6’2”, even if he hasn’t fully filled out his frame yet.
“He is one of the best skaters in the draft,” says Corey Pronman. “Willander's skating allows him to close on checks well and be a quality defender especially when combined with the fact he has some physicality in his game.”
That physicality is a compelling aspect of his game, as he’s not just a smooth-skating defensive defenceman who gets stops with his mobility and gap control — though he’s certainly that as well — but can also physically punish opponents along the boards and in front of the net.
“He can be nasty at times, he defends hard, he gets (defensive) stops quickly in his own zone,” said Rögle GM Chris Abbott to Dayal. “That’s for sure a strength of his is using his size — which I would actually say he plays bigger than he is — and he’s got a nastiness that is natural for him whereas some players I think have to manufacture that.”
Scouts also praise Willander’s motor, as it is rare to see him coast on the ice, despite regularly eating up massive minutes.
“He’s always engaged defensively, using his dynamic posture and evasive footwork to guide attackers away from the middle and break up plays along the boards,” reads his scouting report from Elite Prospects. “When you add the fact that he’s both strong and skilled physically and relentlessly competes for every puck – he’s a nightmare to play against.”
"He's the best in the draft at this."
Willander’s best defensive trait is that he aims to play defence as little as possible. Willander’s aim on every shift is to move the puck up ice quickly and efficiently.
To that end, Willander’s puck retrievals are sublime, as he uses his skating to win races to the puck, then throws in some deception to shake off forecheckers before making quick, crisp passes to start the breakout.
“He retrieves pucks when opponents are breathing down his neck,” says Jordan Harris at Dobber Prospects. “He can turn back or use a head fake to lose an opponent and create space for himself to make an outlet pass and exit the zone – he’s the best in the draft at this.”
This type of work isn’t particularly flashy. Much of Willander’s game is predicated on getting the puck, either by winning a race or breaking up the cycle along the boards, and moving it with a good first pass to exit the zone. That lack of flashiness is one of the reasons he took so long to move up draft boards this season.
“Pretty boring player for me in a good way,” said one NHL scout quoted by Elite Prospects. “Consistent, good things happen with him on the ice.”
If Willander can’t find a passing option on the breakout, he has no issues taking the puck himself, creating separation from forecheckers with just a few strong strides, then flying through the neutral zone to create a zone entry.
With his four-way mobility, size, defensive reads, and ability to break the puck out, Willander looks like the picture of the modern defensive defenceman. In international competition, whether at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, World Junior-A Challenge, or World Under-18 Championship, Sweden depended on Willander to match up against the best forwards in his age group and he regularly came out on top.
“[Willander] battled for every puck, established inside positioning on every retrieval, boxed and gapped hard on opponents, escaped them consistently, looked for the better play in possession,” said Elite Prospects’ David St-Louis in a scouting report against Canada at the Under-18s. “It was a great showing from him.”
It’s that combination of killing plays defensively and immediately turning the puck up ice that could make him a puck-possession monster in the NHL with the right development. It also gives him a high floor as a prospect: at the very least, Willander should develop into a third-pairing defenceman and he has the look of a second-pairing shutdown defenceman who can be used in a match-up role.
Is that potential enough to merit a selection at 11th overall? Or should the Canucks want something more?
"He has the tools to execute."
The real question mark for Willander is his offensive upside, which is the likely dividing line between him being a true, top-four, two-way defenceman and being a more one-dimensional defensive defenceman.
Willander put up 4 goals and 25 points in 39 games in the under-20 Nationell league in Sweden. That pales in comparison to the production of his Team Sweden defence partner, Sandin Pellikka, who had 36 points in 31 games — 1.16 points per game to Willander’s 0.64 points per game.
The tools are there for Willander to produce offensively. He has a decent shot and can generally get it through traffic, though he needs to add work on the release on his wrist shot. His passes are crisp and authoritative. At times, he uses the same deception and mobility to evade forwards at the offensive blue line as he does to escape forechecking pressure.
What’s missing for Willander is offensive creativity. He plays a simple game in the offensive zone, even when he’s showing a little bit of dazzle to deke around an over-aggressive forward or using his skating on the rush to push back a defender.
Instead of using the advantage he creates with his skill to set up a dangerous scoring chance, Willander typically looks for the safe play in the offensive zone. He’ll rush up ice with the puck but then dump the puck around the boards to set up an offensive zone possession, instead of looking for a player driving to the net. He’ll step into space off the blue line but then make a simple pass to a forward on the outside instead of looking for the backdoor play.
There’s nothing necessarily wrong with making the safe play but it limits Willander’s projection as a difference-maker at the NHL level.
As the season progressed, however, Willander started to find a bit more of that missing offensive spark. He looked for stretch passes more often than the simple breakout pass; he activated in the offensive zone to open up for scoring chances; he carried the puck deep and looked to create from below the goal line; and he made a handful of high-end, highlight-reel plays.
At the World Under-18 Championship, Willander’s complete game impressed scouts, as he added some offence to his already impressive defensive and transition game. He put up eights points in six games at the tournament — third among defencemen — and led all defencemen with three goals.
That small sample size shouldn’t outweigh his performance at Rögle necessarily, but it could be considered a proof of concept: there’s potentially more offence there than what he showed throughout the season.
“The offensive upside might not be there but the floor is really high with him and he’s someone who’s a really good project for a development staff to teach him how to do things offensively,” said Elite Prospects’ Lassi Alanen. “He has the tools to execute — it’s all about development.”
Is Willander the right fit for the Canucks?
His future development path is one of the most intriguing aspects of Willander as a prospect. By skipping the SHL and taking the college route, Willander is committing himself to adapting to the North American style of game and NHL-sized rinks.
Another interesting aspect of the NCAA is the schedule, with games on the weekends and workouts throughout the week. With Willander’s need to bulk up and fill out his 6’1” frame, the NCAA route could be ideal for him.
Boston University has produced some pretty good defencemen, like Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk, though that was admittedly under a different coaching staff.
If Willander can take a step offensively, he could turn into the type of do-everything defenceman that NHL teams rely on. If he doesn’t, he’ll likely still be a useful NHL defenceman in a prime position on the right side.
The appeal for the Canucks is obvious. They lack any blue-chip prospects on defence but especially lack depth in their prospect pool on the right side. If they believe in Willander's upside, he could be their first-round pick.
