With no picks in the first two rounds, the odds were against the Vancouver Canucks finding a top-tier prospect at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. The truth is that most players drafted outside of the first round don't make the NHL at all, let alone become impact players.
With that in mind, the Canucks' approach to how they used their picks should be commended, as they took several home-run swings instead of trying to leg out bunt singles.
The Canucks selected three forwards with their first three picks, each of whom has distinct weaknesses that caused them to be available later in the draft but also legitimate high-end potential if they address those weaknesses.
Fernström: elite talent but slow pace
It starts with Melvin Fernström in the third round, who racked up points in Sweden's J20 Nationell. His 63 points is the second-best season ever by a player in their draft year in the J20 Nationell, second only to his teammate, Liam Danielsson, who had 64 points but played in five more games. On top of that, he led Sweden in scoring at Under-18 World Championship with 8 points in 7 games.
Fernström, whose idol is William Nylander, has the type of offensive upside that you would typically see in a late first or early second-round pick but he has one major flaw that caused him to slide to the Canucks at the end of the third round: his skating.
With his limited mobility, Fernström had to rely on his hockey IQ to get him into the right area of the ice at the right time to use his excellent shot or to set up a teammate for a chance.
"He's the kind of kid that has a good brain," said Canucks director of scouting Todd Harvey. "You can see it with how he gets to the dirty areas and is very detailed with his approach in the offensive zone."
This approach was quite clearly effective in the J20 Nationell but likely won't be at higher levels unless he improves his skating and pace.
"There are certain players whose valuations as NHL prospects can be overinflated by gaudy point totals," said Dobber Prospect's Seth Ditchfield. "Unfortunately, Fernström is one of those cases. There is no significant transition game, minimal defensive effort, and his playmaking and skating are mediocre."
As a third-round pick, however, Fernström is an intriguing bet. If he addresses his shortcomings, he has the potential to not only make the NHL but to be a top-six winger. Getting that kind of value out of the third round would be fantastic.
Patterson: NHL tools, has to put it all together
That potential is also there for Riley Patterson, who the Canucks selected in the fourth round.
Before coming to the OHL this past season, Patterson dominated the OJHL as a 16-year-old, putting up 73 points in 52 games. That was enough to lead the North York Rangers in scoring by 19 points and to finish 11th in the league in points — all ten players ahead of him in scoring were at least three years older than Patterson.
In fact, it was the best season by a 16-year-old in the OJHL in the last twenty years.
Patterson's decision to go the OHL route instead of heading to the NCAA initially looked like it would backfire, as he got off to a slow start, but he scored at a point-per-game pace in the second half of the season and finished the year with 62 points in 68 games.
While Patterson has all the tools you would hope to see in a top-tier prospect, his flaw is in the connective tissue: he struggles to put it all together. Some of that might be a result of playing last season in the OJHL instead of making an earlier jump to the OHL.
"He still looks more like a draft-minus-one player," said Elite Prospects' Mitchell Brown in one scouting report. "He's not patient under pressure and throws away pucks on half-wall breakouts constantly."
If his head can catch up to his tools, however, Patterson could be a revelation, because everything else is already there: the skating, the size, the puck protection, the shot, and even the passing.
Romani: high-end talent, two months too old
The Canucks biggest upside play might've been the last forward they picked: Anthony Romani in the sixth round.
Everything about Romani's season screams first-round pick. He scored 58 goals and 111 points in 68 OHL games and has high-end hockey sense to go with an excellent shot, soft hands, and superb playmaking ability.
"Obviously, you got to respect the goalscoring, but I think there's a lot more to his game," said Harvey. "He can make plays, and he's learning to play away from the puck and be better defensively. But the goalscoring — we thought was too hard to turn away from it and we're happy that he fell to us there at 162."
Romani has one primary flaw: he's two months too old.
Perhaps that's oversimplifying — there are some question marks about his skating and ability to win puck battles — but it's also true. If Romani had a late August birthday instead of a mid-July birthday, this would be his first year of draft eligibility and likely would have earned first-round buzz. Instead, he was in his second year of draft eligibility and slid all the way to the sixth round.
"Going undrafted last year, I had a bit of fuel there and I just wanted to come into this year and have a big year,” said Romani. “I had a big offseason and built my confidence over the year. Playing with great players really helped me have a big year this year."
Consider this: Beckett Sennecke was the highest-drafted player from the OHL this year, going third overall to the Anaheim Ducks. Romani outscored Sennecke by 31 goals and 43 points.
That's nothing against Sennecke — he's an elite talent and a bold choice by the Ducks that just might pay off — but it's wild how much of a difference a few months makes in evaluating prospects.
If the Canucks had picked Romani in the sixth round last season, after he had 23 goals and 43 points in 66 games, and he went on to rack up 58 goals and 111 points, Canucks fans would be hyping him up as an elite talent. That said, there's a reason why Romani didn't get picked higher. Players who don't break out until their second year of draft eligibility might not be the best prospects in terms of NHL potential.
Still, while there's no guarantee Romani makes the NHL, the upside is undeniable, which makes him a great pick in the sixth round.
Alcos and Sansonnens: Big and young, limited offence
Each of the forwards drafted by the Canucks is an upside bet in a different way. With Fernström, the Canucks are betting he can develop his skating; with Patterson, his hockey sense. With Romani, the Canucks are betting he's a late-bloomer who ought to have been picked in his draft year.
With the two defencemen they picked at the end of the draft, however, the upside bet is the same.
Both Parker Alcos, drafted in the sixth round, and Basile Sansonnens, drafted in the seventh round, are big defencemen on the younger end of prospects eligible in the draft. The cutoff date for players to turn 18 and be eligible to be selected is September 15; Alcos doesn't turn 18 until July 20, while Sansonnens doesn't turn 18 until August 19.
Both are defensive defencemen who struggled to put up points in their draft year, Alcos in the WHL and Sansonnens in the Swiss U20-Elit league, but there's a hope that their young age played a role in those struggles. At that age, an extra 10 months or so of development can make a major difference.
Of the two, Alcos has the most potential, as he's already shown glimmers of NHL-caliber puck movement, with a knack for suckering in forechecking pressure before hitting his man with a crisp pass in transition when he's not skating the puck up ice himself.
"The combination of reach and mobility, along with his improving details, could make him a top defender at this level," said Elite Prospects' Mitchell Brown in one scouting report. "The tools are NHL-caliber and he has real breakout potential."
With some work on his puckhandling and shot in the offseason, Alcos should significantly improve on the paltry 15 points he managed this past season.
"He is a really, really good skater. He is mobile and he can really move pucks," said Harvey. "He's light and has a lot of growth left. We are happy that he was there for us, and our people really liked him."
The wild card is Sansonnens, who has the size and mobility to be a shutdown defenceman at the NHL level but needs to take significant steps forward in his puck skills, as there's no offensive dimension to his game whatsoever, which leads to concerns about his ability to move the puck. The highlight reel posted by the Canucks themselves is painfully underwhelming.
That said, he's still so young and already has a well-developed defensive game. If — and it's a big if — he can develop his game with the puck, there's upside as a shutdown defenceman and it's hard to hope for much more than that out of a seventh-round pick.
"He’s a big defenceman. He's raw. He moves pretty good for a big guy," said Harvey. "We liked his raw ability and, with some growth, there's a good player there."
Considering their lack of picks, Canucks drafted well
No one is going to give the Canucks an A+ for a draft where they had no chance of adding a legitimate blue-chip prospect but there was a clear philosophy to their picks on Saturday.
The Canucks took the best approach possible toward finding a top prospect without a top pick, gambling on players with significant upside but also significant flaws. That gives each of these prospects a low floor but a legitimately high ceiling.
Fernström might not make the NHL but, if he does, it's likely as a top-six, goal-scoring winger.
Patterson might not make the NHL but, if he does, it's likely as a versatile and opportunistic middle-six forward who can play any position.
Romani might not make the NHL but, if he does, it's likely as a puck-possession, play-creating force in the top six.
Alcos might not make the NHL but, if he does, it's likely as a well-rounded two-way defenceman on the right side of the ice, one of the hardest things to find in the NHL.
And Sansonnens might not make the NHL but, if he does, it's likely as a modern, mobile, 6'4" shutdown defenceman.
If even one of these prospects reaches their potential, this will have been a very successful draft for the Canucks.
