If the Vancouver Canucks lose in regulation on Tuesday night against the Dallas Stars, their playoff chances are officially, mathematically over.
With five games remaining, the Canucks have 83 points, meaning they can get to a maximum of 93 points if they win out. That would be enough to catch both the St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild.
The Blues, currently at 93 points, would have to lose all of their remaining games in regulation, leaving the Canucks with the edge in the first tiebreaker, regulation wins, if they won all five of their games in regulation. The Wild, meanwhile, are at 91 points, but would have the edge over the Canucks in regulation wins, so they would have to lose all of their remaining games, though one could be in overtime or the shootout to get them to 92 points.
A regulation loss to the Stars on Tuesday, however, would end even that gossamer-faint hope. That would leave the Canucks only able to get to a maximum of 91 points, with the Wild holding the tiebreaker.
Realistically, of course, the Canucks are not going to make the playoffs even if they win against the Stars. But players will find motivation wherever they can get it.
Their opponent isn't banking on hope, of course. The Stars are one of the best teams in the NHL, with their 105 points in the standings landing them third in the league behind the Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals.
The Stars have three forwards with 30+ goals — Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, and Wyatt Johnston — with two more knocking at the door with 29 and 28 goals: Matt Duchene and Roope Hintz. The last time a team had five players with 30 goals was the 1992-93 season, when both the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins managed that feat.
Fun fact: current Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet was one of the Penguins with 30+ goals that season, scoring 48 goals in 80 games.
Vancouver Canucks projected lines
The Canucks are not expected to make any changes to their lineup on Tuesday apart from their starting goaltender.
UPDATE: Never mind! We have major changes to the forward lines! Only the third line remains the same.
Max Sasson has been promoted to the second line, playing between Jake DeBrusk and Brock Boeser. Conor Garland will now be with Nils Höglander and Pius Suter. That bumps Teddy Blueger down to the fourth line between Drew O'Connor and Kiefer Sherwood.
We also have a swap on the first and third pairings on defence, with Elias "Junior" Pettersson promoted to the top pairing with Quinn Hughes in place of Victor Mancini. The Hughes/Mancini pairings really wasn't working, so this isn't too surprising.
Here are the Canucks' projected lines:
The Canucks' starting goaltender will be Thatcher Demko. He had 30 saves on 32 shots in his last start, a 6-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks.
Dallas Stars projected lines
The Stars are a wagon, with the third-highest rate of goals per game in the NHL but also the third-lowest rate of goals against per game. The Canucks have fallen victim to the Stars twice already this season. They lost 5-3 to the Stars on January 31, a loss made even worse by Quinn Hughes getting injured and missing the next four weeks, including the 4 Nations Face-Off.
The last time the Canucks faced the Stars, their offence disappeared in a 4-1 loss, though at least Derek Forbort got his first goal as a Canuck.
Here are the Stars' projected lines, courtesy of beat reporter Sam Nestler:
Jason Robertson - Roope Hintz - Mikko Rantanen
Mason Marchment - Matt Duchene - Mikael Granlund
Jamie Benn - Wyatt Johnston - Mavrik Bourque
Evgenii Dadonov - Sam Steel - Colin Blackwell
Esa Lindell - Cody Ceci
Thomas Harley - Ilya Lyubushkin
Lian Bichsel - Matthew Dumba
Casey DeSmith
Jake Oettinger
According to Nestler, Evgenii Dadonov will be a game-time decision, with Oskar Bäck expected to step into the lineup if Dadonov does not play.
The Stars' starting goaltender will be Casey DeSmith, getting his second start against the Canucks since he left Vancouver in free agency. DeSmith stopped 22 of 23 shots in his last start against the Canucks, a 4-1 win for the Stars on March 9.
