There was a collective groan throughout the Canucks’ fanbase when the results of the draft lottery were announced. Instead of drafting first or second overall and getting one of the two consensus best players in the draft, a franchise forward that could make their rebuilding efforts a whole lot easier, the Canucks slipped to fifth overall, a land of uncertainty and confusion.
There are any number of players the Canucks could pick at fifth overall, but they each have their own major question marks: Is Cody Glass dynamic enough to be a first-line centre? Can Elias Pettersson get strong enough to deal with the rigours and small ice of the NHL? Will Gabriel Vilardi overcome his poor skating?
How much easier would it be to just pick first overall and choose between Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick?
Maybe they still can.
Elliotte Friedman suggested in his 30 Thoughts column that Jim Benning and the Canucks have interest in moving up to first overall. The Devils are rumoured to prefer picking a defenceman, while the Canucks have a serious need for a centre. If the Devils can trade down, acquiring additional assets while still getting the player they want, why wouldn’t they do it?
And it’s understandable why the Canucks would be interested. They can certainly get a good player at fifth overall, potentially a great one, but there’s a lot more certainty with Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick. Both seem likely to step directly into the NHL, providing a nice PR boost for a Canucks team that seems to be struggling to connect with fans.
Even picking first overall would give the Canucks a nice story. The franchise has never picked first overall at the draft, though they briefly held the first overall pick for the 1999 draft during Brian Burke’s wheeling and dealing to draft the Sedins second and third overall. Picking first would symbolically break a curse that’s been hanging over the team since a lottery wheel landing on "11" in 1970.
It’s also worth noting that the Canucks interviewed Nico Hischier at the NHL Combine, though there are no reports of them speaking to Nolan Patrick. If they do aim to move up to first, it seems likely they’ll target Hischier.
The question is, however, what would it take to move up to first overall?
It’s been 14 years since the first overall pick has been traded before the draft, with the Florida Panthers doing it in back-to-back years in 2002 and 2003. The 2003 trade is illustrative for our purposes: the Pittsburgh Penguins traded the third pick, 55th pick, and a 25-year-old Mikael Samuelsson for the first overall pick and the 73rd pick. With the first overall pick, they drafted Marc-Andre Fleury.
Like the Penguins in 2003, the Canucks have the 55th pick thanks to the Columbus Blue Jackets hiring John Tortorella. According to Friedman, the Canucks have dangled that pick to go with the fifth overall pick to move up to first overall.
That seems like a non-starter for the Devils, however, particularly when moving down to fifth would offer far too much uncertainty for the Devils, who wouldn’t be assured of getting the defenceman they want with the Stars and Avalanche picking ahead of them.
On the TSN 1040 morning show, Satiar Shah suggested that the price would potentially be Olli Juolevi and the fifth overall pick to move up to first overall. Dave Pratt immediately jumped in and said that he would do that deal in a heartbeat. Canucks fans on Twitter weren’t on board, with 85% saying “No” to that trade suggestion.
That’s a price that makes sense for the Devils: they get a blue-chip defenceman prospect, in case they miss out on the defenceman they want in this year’s draft, and still get a top draft pick.
It makes far less sense for the Canucks, who need defencemen as much as they need a first-line centre. The gap between Hischier/Patrick and whoever they might pick at fifth overall is not wide enough to justify trading Juolevi.
So what price would you pay? If the fifth and 55th picks aren’t enough and the fifth and Juolevi is too much, what deal would you be willing to make if you were the GM of the Canucks?
