Within hours of the Vancouver byelection results coming out Saturday evening, senior people in left-of-centre civic parties found themselves thinking out loud. They were pondering just how to box the NPA in, and to shut down any possibility of Vancouver’s once natural ruling party from a straight line to a majority government at city hall a year from now. In a word, it means an “accommodation” — a deal that would deliver a majority on common priorities, a deal on how much room candidates for Vision, the Greens, OneCity and possibly COPE get on the ballot and who those candidates would be.
An accommodation would describe the relationship that now exists in Victoria between the Greens and the NDP. While a “coalition” may have put a Green politician in the cabinet, an “accommodation” still leaves the Greens free to criticize the NDP without causing it to lose a vote of confidence and force an election.
If you want to know what it would look like if there is no accommodation and all the centre-left parties or those they endorse as candidates run against each other, look no further than Saturday’s byelection results for council. While the candidates for Vision, OneCity, the Green Party and Jean Swanson (who was endorsed by COPE) received 67 per cent of the votes, NPA candidate Hector Bremner won with just short of 28 per cent.
Anyone keeping score over the past three general elections will realize that Vision is a declining power. In 2014, they lost the school board, the park board and their super majority on council, which would allow them to approve grants without support from other parties.
Green Coun. Adriane Carr holds the view that the public is growing more skeptical about majority governments. She sees the byelection results for school board and the changes in the distribution of power as evidence of that.
For the nine spots on school board, Vision was cut from four seats to three. Also worth noting, the NPA was cut in half to two seats. The Greens were the big winners, going from one to three seats while all three candidates topped the polls, and the COPE breakaway group OneCity picked up a seat.
Simply put, no party has a majority. But rather than end up with a pissing match that dominated the board before it was mercifully put out of its misery last year by being fired, there is the possibility of an accommodation reached presumably by the centre-left parties.
That could take place as early as the end of this month at the first meeting of the new board when they are sworn in and select a chair. Then we will see.
In terms of next year’s general election, I would say it would be up to Vision led by Mayor Gregor Robertson to say let’s make a deal.
That, however, raises the question of whether Robertson intends to run. Should he choose to step down, a fractious leadership battle within Vision could scuttle a possible accommodation with the other parties.
There is also the matter that I hear that a “few” Vision councillors intend to step down at the end of this term. That would be essential to accommodate a ballot that gives room to the other parties. And that would likely mean at least one for OneCity, Judy Graves, for example; possibly Jean Swanson with COPE’s blessing; and two slots for the Greens, including incumbent Carr. As well, Vision has apparently already promised a slot for their byelection sacrificial lamb, Diego Cardona.
And don’t think that Bremner and the NPA will sit idly by while all this is taking place. Bremner et al have significant skills and resources available now that the Liberals are no longer in power in Victoria. Christy Clark’s folks were at work during the byelection to help Bremner top the polls.
As well, we have no idea who might be in the NPA’s wings wanting to challenge for the mayor’s chair. NPA Coun. George Affleck has been sniffing around. And their 2014 candidate Kirk LaPointe’s name keeps popping up.
One more thing: There has been an accommodation attempted on the left in the past, specifically with COPE and Vision. It had fewer players than what is before us today. But, by any standard, it failed miserably for the parties involved, leading to an NPA majority and Sam Sullivan as mayor.
@allengarr
