B.C. job counts were unchanged in January according to Statistics Canada’s latest Survey of Employers, Payroll and Hours at 2.56 million positions, nudging down by 624 positions. Goods-producing industries reported 1,370 more (0.4 per cent) positions while services-producing payrolls added 880 positions (0.04 per cent). The decline in overall headcounts were concentrated in unclassified businesses. Broadly, payroll counts in B.C. have been range-bound over the past year with little change in net positions.
The job vacancy rate edged down to 3.5 per cent in January, with total vacancies falling to around 87,000—lowest level since August 2017. While the job vacancy rate has remained below four per cent since May 2024, this January still marked the lowest level since June 2017. This points to weak hiring sentiment on the part of employers, which has further deteriorated with tariff threats.
Within goods-producing industries, energy posted an increase of 1,000 payrolls to lead the overall increase. The most notable increase in services was in education, which reported a gain of nearly 3,600 positions (1.9 per cent). The growth was offset by declines in sectors such as information and culture (down 1,600 positions or 2.6 per cent) and health care and social assistance (down 1,520 positions or 0.4 per cent). Transportation reported continuous growth with 1,400 more positions (up 1.1 per cent). There was little change in the remaining sectors.
Hiring momentum will continue to slow as businesses temper investment and expansion, and remain cautious due to economic uncertainty.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) Barometer Survey showed a dramatic decline in sentiment in March amongst small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as U.S. tariff threats intensified. The long-term 12-month confidence index fell for a fourth consecutive month, decreasing by 24.8 points to 25 points. The short-term index also declined by 16.1 points to 31.2 points. The 12-month indicator was lower than that seen during the 2020 pandemic, 2008 financial crisis and 9/11. U.S. and Canadian retaliatory tariffs that went into effect in March and the plan for additional measures have caused widespread uncertainty, especially in exposed sectors and businesses. Importing SMEs saw the measure decline to 35.6 points, down from the recent November peak of 60.9 points. Exporting SMEs saw a similar, slightly larger decline from 63.1 points to 35.9 points. The hospitality sector and manufacturing sector are the lowest sectors based on the 12-month index, coming in at 17 points and 18.6 points
The long-term index fell in B.C. by 22.6 points, but marked the third-smallest decline among the provinces, with only New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador seeing a smaller decline. The short-term index fell by 7.5 points and was the second-smallest decline after New Brunswick. The current value of 26.5 for the long-run index and 34.4 for the short-run index puts B.C. in the middle compared to other provinces, but the overall performance remains dismal. That said, B.C.’s export market is more sheltered from U.S. tariffs given less trade exposure to the country. The U.S. share of B.C.’s international goods exports is about 52 per cent, compared to 75 per cent nationally.
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1.
