The first election I covered as a pollster took place in Quebec almost 18 years ago. The upstart Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) pushed the sovereignist Parti Québécois (PQ) to third place and held the Liberal Party of Quebec to a minority mandate.
The following months were disastrous for the ADQ: A critical press zeroing in on the statements of rookie lawmakers, by-election defeats and defections. In the subsequent provincial election, the ADQ went from 41 seats in the National Assembly to just seven.
This provides some lessons for the BC Conservative. Their recent annual general meeting gave interested followers a glimpse into where B.C.’s official Opposition might go, though British Columbians have a clear idea of where they should go. Sizable majorities want the party to focus on four issues: Getting the government to invest more on health care (80 per cent), fostering economic growth in all areas of the province (80 per cent), developing a housing policy that rivals what the provincial government is doing (70 per cent) and getting more pipelines built and more energy projects approved (59 per cent).
Two items that got plenty of attention—on regular and social media—last year are ranked significantly lower: Banning transgender women from taking part in women’s sports competitions (42 per cent) and reverting the ban on plastic straws (35 per cent).
BC Conservative leader John Rustad gets mixed reviews. About one in four think he is “better” than the last four leaders of the BC Liberals: Gordon Campbell, Andrew Wilkinson and Kevin Falcon (each at 19 per cent) and Christy Clark (21 per cent). The BC Conservative base feels differently. More than a third of British Columbians who voted for the party in 2024 think Rustad is superior to Campbell (36 per cent), Wilkinson (also 36 per cent), Clark (38 per cent) and Falcon (40 per cent).
At this stage, 35 per cent of British Columbians think Rustad is a “premier-in-waiting,” while 45 per cent disagree and 21 per cent are undecided. His numbers on this question are low among the highest voting demographic: British Columbians aged 55 and over (30 per cent).
The positioning of the BC Conservatives will define if a road from Opposition to government can be travelled. When asked to side with one of two distinct paths for a political party, three in four British Columbians (75 per cent) prefer free votes to members voting as a group on policy, and more than three in five (64 per cent) choose parties that advocate for more economic and personal freedoms and not the status quo.
Three other pairs of statements present a conundrum for the BC Conservatives, with majorities of British Columbians preferring parties that are perceived as Anti-American and not pro-American (64 per cent), acknowledge Indigenous reconciliation (66 per cent) and acknowledge and help the less fortunate instead of choosing not to provide handouts when in power (70 per cent).
Finally, on the issue that is at the forefront of public sentiment, the province’s residents see an 11-point gap between the party that is in power and the party that seeks to dethrone it. At this stage, 59 per cent of British Columbians say they trust the BC NDP to stand up to the threats generated by U.S. President Donald Trump, while 48 per cent feel the same way about the BC Conservatives.
The challenges of the BC Conservatives are different to the ones endured by Campbell, the only BC Liberal leader to serve in Opposition and then form government. An emotional connection based on the “free enterprise coalition” mantra was successful with voters aged 55 and over. The province’s oldest adults stayed with the BC NDP in October 2024 and are not looking at Rustad as a “premier-in-waiting” in March 2025. Without the support of these voters, winning an election is extremely difficult.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online survey conducted from March 3-5, 2025, among 802 adults in B.C. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
