Perhaps sadly, Metro Vancouverites are more likely to have a rainy Christmas than a white one.
Environment Canada Meteorologist Chris Doyle tells V.I.A. that the odds of a frosty Dec. 25 are extremely rare historically and December's forecast doesn't show an anomalous cold front moving into the region.
Based on the department's historical weather data for Vancouver International Airport (YVR) from 1955 to 2023, the odds of a White Christmas — at least two centimetres on the ground or more — are roughly 10 per cent.
Doyle notes that YVR's statistics may not apply to other parts of the region, such as areas further inland or places at higher elevations such as Burnaby Mountain.
Metro Vancouver weather forecast must include Arctic air for significant snow
In addition to the slim odds, this year's forecast doesn't indicate an Arctic front that will move into the region in time for the holiday. A major cold event is typically required for significant snow at sea level, even in places that are further inland, adds Doyle.
"We would need a signal for an arctic outbreak very soon," he says.
Meteorologists usually observe these cold fronts forming about 10 to 14 days in advance and issue Arctic outflow warnings for any "combination of wind speed and temperature giving a wind chill of -20 C or lower for six hours or more."
Environment Canada is calling for temperatures near to or above average for the rest of December. Seasonal averages include highs around 6 C and lows of 1 C, which aren't cold enough for snowfall.
"It's not looking like a high likelihood of a White Christmas this year," says Doyle.
Stay up-to-date with hyperlocal forecasts across 50 neighbourhoods in the Lower Mainland with V.I.A.'s Weatherhood.
