Fans with tickets booked to see Taylor Swift perform in Vancouver later this year might already be concerned about wintry weather conditions.
While Metro Vancouver typically doesn't receive snowfall in early December, it isn't entirely unheard of.
Environment Canada meteorologist Yimei Li told V.I.A. there was a significant snow event in late November a couple of years ago, before the start of meteorological winter on Dec. 1.
"A major storm can happen at any time," Li points out.
Swift is slated to perform at three sold-out shows at BC Place as part of her Eras Tour on Dec. 6, 7, and 8, 2024.
Many locals have tickets but numerous fans will fly, drive, or take the train from elsewhere in Canada or abroad to see the "Fortnight" singer.
Hotel prices shot up following the tour announcement. In February, prices for some hotels typically averaging $150 to $200 per night soared around $1,000.
Yi said the climate model shows a 66 per cent chance of La Niña developing from September to November and persisting from then through January. The weather phenomenon typically results in a wetter, cooler winter on B.C.'s south coast, a boon for alpine enthusiasts searching for champagne powder.
La Niña years can see more snowfall but aren't necessarily associated with early-season cold. This year's signal is weak, meaning that fall isn't likely to be colder than usual.
Will it snow in Metro Vancouver when Taylor Swift is in town?
Yi points out that December doesn't typically see much snowfall, either. Since the climate record began in 1896 there have only been 26 days with snow (out of 381 days).
The highest snow recorded on Dec. 6 was 14.2 cm in 1958. On Dec. 7, it was 11.4 cm in 1927. Swift's final date, Dec. 8, set the record for the three days, with 28.4 cm of snow recorded in 1971.
In more recent years, between 1991 and 2020, December has averaged 1.9 days with greater than 0.2 cm of snow in Metro Vancouver. The region averages 0.78 days of greater or equal to 5 cm.
Still, a massive storm can create commuter chaos in the Lower Mainland. In 2022, a Surrey resident shared his story with V.I.A. of a nightmare, 12-hour commute home from his office in Mount Pleasant during a rare late November snowstorm.
The Old Farmer's Almanac calls for colder temperatures in Metro Vancouver this winter but doesn't expect significant snow. The Almanac's forecasters expect the southern portion of the province will receive below-average precipitation and "lighter than expected" snowfall.
What travellers to Vancouver should consider for Eras Tour weather conditions
People booking flights to Vancouver International Airport (YVR) for the concert will want to book comprehensive travel insurance and check the weather forecast before they head to the airport. They may also want to pack for mild or exceptionally frosty weather since either is possible in the region at the onset of December.
If possible, anyone travelling long distances by air, rail, or road will also want to consider not travelling the day of or even the day before their show in case of delays or cancellations that would prohibit them from making it to see Swift take the stage at BC Place.
Those booking short-term rentals or hotels outside of Vancouver, including in the Sea-to-Sky region or Fraser Valley, should have contingency plans for inclement weather impacting B.C. highways and roads.
While Swift often performs in open-air stadiums - even in the pouring rain - BC Place is likely to have the roof closed for her Vancouver shows. Fans will want to plan to wear weather-appropriate outerwear to get to and from the show but can show off their costumes and outfits after setting their jackets down on their seats for the concert.
With additional reporting by Lindsay William-Ross
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