SRINAGAR, India (AP) — India and Pakistan cancelled visas for their nationals to each other’s countries and Islamabad warned New Delhi for suspending a water-sharing treaty Thursday.
The moves came after India blamed Pakistan for a deadly attack by gunmen that killed 26 people in disputed Kashmir.
India said all visas issued to Pakistani nationals will be revoked with effect from Sunday, adding that all Pakistanis currently in India must leave before their visas expire based on the revised timeline. The country also announced other measures, including cutting the number of diplomatic staff, closing the only functional land border crossing between the countries and suspending a crucial water-sharing agreement.
In retaliation, Pakistan closed its airspace for all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines, and suspended all trade with India, including to and from any third country.
Tuesday's attack in Kashmir was the worst assault in years, targeting civilians in the restive region that has seen an anti-India rebellion for more than three decades.
The incident shocked and outraged Indians, prompting calls for action against their country's archenemy, Pakistan. The Indian government said the attack had “cross-border” links to Pakistan, without publicly producing any evidence to support that claim. Pakistan has denied any connection to the attack, which was claimed by a previously unknown militant group calling itself the Kashmir Resistance.
Pakistan’s National Security Committee condemned India’s “belligerent measures." It said that while Pakistan remained committed to peace, it would never allow anyone to “transgress its sovereignty, security, dignity and inalienable rights.”
Government ministers on both sides have hinted that the dispute could escalate to military action. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told local Dunya News TV channel that “any kinetic step by India will see a tit-for-tat kinetic response."
Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh pledged Wednesday to “not only trace those who perpetrated the attack but also trace those who conspired to commit this nefarious act on our soil,” and hinted at the possibility of military strikes.
India and Pakistan each administer a part of Kashmir, but both claim the territory in its entirety. New Delhi describes all militancy in Kashmir as Pakistan-backed terrorism. Pakistan denies this, and many Muslim Kashmiris consider the militants to be part of a home-grown freedom struggle.
Domestic pressures on both sides
The killings have put pressure on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist government to respond aggressively.
“India will identify, track and punish every terrorist, their handlers and their backers," Modi told a rally Thursday. “We will pursue them to the ends of the earth,” he warned.
His government announced a series of diplomatic actions against Islamabad while hinting at plans for more punishment.
India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced Wednesday that a number of Pakistani diplomats were asked to leave New Delhi and Indian diplomats were recalled from Pakistan. Diplomatic missions in both countries will reduce their staff from 55 to 30 as of May 1, and the only functional land border crossing between them would be closed.
India’s foreign ministry advised Indians citizens not to travel to Pakistan and asked those currently there to return.
India also suspended a landmark water-sharing treaty that has survived two wars between the countries, in 1965 and 1971, and a major border skirmish in 1999.
The Indus Water Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allows for sharing the waters of a river system that is a lifeline for both countries, particularly for Pakistan’s agriculture.
Pakistan has responded angrily that it has nothing to do with the attack and warned that any Indian attempt to stop or divert flow of water would be considered an “act of war” and met with “full force across the complete spectrum” of Pakistan’s national power.
In Pakistan, dozens of demonstrators rallied in some cities, including outside the Indian High Commission in Islamabad, against India’s suspension of the treaty, demanding their government to retaliate.
Fears of escalation
Modi overturned the status quo in Kashmir in August 2019, when his government revoked the region's semi-autonomous status and brought it under direct federal control.
That deepened tensions in the region, but things with Pakistan held stable as the two countries in 2021 renewed a previous ceasefire agreement along their border, which has largely held despite militant attacks on Indian forces in the region.
Some experts say India may move beyond diplomatic sanctions as the country’s media and leaders from Modi’s ruling party call for military action.
Ashok Malik, a former policy advisor in India’s foreign ministry, said New Delhi’s response reflected a high degree of anger within the administration and India’s move on the Indus Water treaty “will impose costs on Pakistan’s economy.”
Malik added that Indian leaders view military options as viable.
"(India's) military strategists believe there is a space for kinetic conventional action under the nuclear umbrella. The space isn’t infinite, but it isn’t insignificant either,” he said.
Praveen Donthi, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, said framing the Kashmir conflict as a security crisis of Pakistan’s creation, “which can be resolved only through harsh talk and actions,” brings political dividends to Modi’s government but could also leave it with few options in times of crises.
“The immense public pressure on the Modi government to retaliate strongly and militarily is self-created. Soon, there will be no options left unless New Delhi starts looking to address the roots of political unrest in Kashmir,” Donthi said.
Dismay in Kashmir
The killings shocked residents of Kashmir, where militants fighting against Indian rule have rarely targeted tourists and have mainly mounted their attacks against Indian forces.
In a rare show of public outrage, Kashmiris — many of whom have struggled under an intense crackdown by Indian forces and New Delhi's highhanded rule — took part in street protests and candle light marches in protest against the killings. Markets, private schools and businesses were shut Wednesday amid an uneasy calm as people worried that the attacks could drive away tourists and hurt the region’s economy.
“The people here are in fear and panic,” said hotelier Manzoor Ahmed, adding that tourists would now be skeptical of visiting Kashmir.
Funerals of several of those killed were also held across some Indian cities.
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Butt reported from Islamabad. Associated Press journalists Rajesh Roy in New Delhi and Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed to this report.
Aijaz Hussain, Sheikh Saaliq And Riazat Butt, The Associated Press
