Drafting for need is something NHL teams should typically avoid, especially in the first round of the NHL Entry Draft. The goal should always be to take the best player available.
But what if the best player available really doesn’t fit your needs at all?
Axel Sandin Pellikka made his case this past season as arguably the best defenceman in the 2023 draft. He’s a smooth-skating offensive defenceman and the ability to quarterback the power play, but is a little bit undersized by NHL standards at 5’11” and 180 lbs. He could well be available to the Vancouver Canucks with the 11th overall pick and, as a right-shooting defenceman, he would address a deficiency in their system.
So, what’s the problem? As the Frenchmen in Monty Python and the Holy Grail would say, “We’ve already got one.” And, “It’s very nice.”
Do the Canucks need Axel Sandin Pellikka?
The Canucks already have Quinn Hughes, an undersized, smooth-skating offensive defenceman who quarterbacks the first power play unit. Even if they do play on opposite sides, Sandin Pellikka would seem a little redundant. After all, only one defenceman at a time can quarterback a modern power play unit.
In addition, there’s a growing sense around the NHL that size is more important than ever on defence, even if it’s less important at forward. While the 5’9” Jonathan Marchessault won the Conn Smythe for the Vegas Golden Knights in their Stanley Cup victory, the team’s blue line was huge and it was a similar story for the Tampa Bay Lightning in their recent Cup wins.
With that in mind, it would seem necessary to surround Hughes with size on defence and Sandin Pellikka just doesn’t fit.
Then again, the Colorado Avalanche had both Cale Makar and Samuel Girard on their roster when they won the Stanley Cup two years ago. Who says a team can’t have two undersized offensive defencemen at the same time?
If Sandin Pellikka is the best player available when the Canucks pick, whether or not he fits a current need shouldn’t enter into the discussion. Prioritizing the best player available over drafting for need is important because needs change over time. Perhaps in a few years, the thing the Canucks need the most is a smooth-skating, puck-moving defenceman on the right side, no matter his size. If not, trading a top prospect for a player or prospect that better fits your needs is a lot easier to do when you’ve drafted the best player available.
Is Sandin Pellikka that “best player,” though? Many in the public sphere seem to think so, as he’s ranked in the top ten for Dobber Prospects, Recruit Scouting, Draft Prospects, Daily Faceoff, FC Hockey, and The Hockey News’s Tony Ferrari. Heck, the ever-opinionated Craig Button has Sandin Pellikka in his top five.
“He’s the best defenceman in the draft,” said Button. “And he’s just continuously showed me that. I watch the poise, the ability to control the game in every single zone, and seemingly do it with a calm and an ease that is eerily reminiscent of Sergei Zubov.
“He’s not going to overwhelm you with his blazing skill or any blazing quality, but his brain is advanced, massively.”
Should the Canucks have a similarly-high view of Sandin Pellikka and take him 11th overall, regardless of whether he is a perfect fit for their needs? Let’s take a closer look.
"He’s able to eliminate scoring threats before they even begin."
Let’s start with what is typically the most heavily-scrutinized aspect of an undersized offensive defenceman’s game: their defence.
There’s a reason why Sandin Pellikka played 22 games against men in the SHL for Skellefteå AIK, which is not typically a league with much patience for teenagers who can’t hold their own defensively. Sandin Pellikka is adept at using his mobility to defend against the rush and he battles hard in the defensive zone to make up for his smaller size.
“The Swedish blueliner is an engaged defender, particularly stout between the blue lines and along the boards,” reads his scouting report from Elite Prospects.
Scouts consistently praise Sandin Pellikka’s consistency in keeping his head on a swivel to assess dangers in the defensive zone and he plays a calm, poised game with and without the puck, making few mistakes.
“[Sandin Pellikka] already has many professional defensive habits that should enable him to be an effective two-way defenseman in the NHL,” says a report from Smaht Scouting. “He is always scanning the ice and anticipating, which allows him to close on players quickly in the neutral zone and kill transitions. He’s able to eliminate scoring threats before they even begin.”
While many scouting reports note that the defensive side of his game is unlikely to be his biggest strength at the next level — he’s not going to be a shutdown defenceman, by any means — it’s also not a major weakness either, despite his smaller size. At times, his lower centre of gravity is even a benefit rather than a hindrance.
“Though he’s not big, he’s athletic and he plays hard and engages in battles in the defensive zone with some sneaky strength,” says The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler.
One issue noted by scouts in the defensive zone, however, is an unusual one: puck retrievals. While Sandin Pellikka’s skating and skill with the puck ought to make retrievals a strength, it’s repeatedly brought up how he sometimes struggles with forechecking pressure at his back.
“The turnovers demonstrated his issues on retrievals, not scanning or deceiving enough and cutting straight into pressure,” said Elite Prospects’ Lassi Alanen in one scouting report of an SHL game.
"A confident puck carrier on exits and entries."
Once Sandin Pellikka has retrieved the puck and is facing up ice, he’s back in his comfort zone. Elite Prospects ranks Sandin Pellikka as the best transition defenceman in the draft, as he engineers zone exits with practiced ease.
Sandin Pellikka’s elusiveness is readily apparent. He’s adept at subtle shifts in weight and deceptive stickhandling to get forecheckers guessing one way while he’s already moving in the opposite direction, giving him plenty of space to skate the puck up ice or hit a teammate in stride through a suddenly wide-open passing lane.
He’s at his most dangerous when he jumps up in the rush, zipping through the neutral zone to create clean zone entries and rush chances. It’s a major strength of his game.
“He’s got really good edges and mobility and has shown improved speed in straight lines to pull away from chasers (with more room for growth there still),” says Wheeler. “He keeps his head up in the neutral and defensive zones and is a confident puck carrier on exits and entries.”
That transition game looks projectable to the NHL, particularly the deceptiveness, which is essential at the NHL level.
"Sandin Pellikka can run a power play with intelligence and poise."
Sandin Pellikka’s offence is obviously his calling card. He was a force in Sweden’s J20 Nationell league, putting up 16 goals and 36 points in 31 games, the best among first-time draft-eligible defencemen by a wide margin. At the World Under-18 Championship, Sandin Pellikka put up 11 points in 7 games and was named the tournament’s best defenceman.
That offence stands out, particularly amongst this group of prospects, where he’s the only player who projects comfortably as a future power play quarterback.
The same elusiveness that Sandin Pellikka brings to breakouts comes out at the offensive blue line, where he regularly uses his four-way mobility and excellent stickhandling to keep opposing forwards off balance and create shooting and passing lanes.
“Sandin Pellikka can run a power play with intelligence and poise, walking the blueline to find passing and shooting lanes while having the recognition and skill to step into open space to generate a scoring chance for himself,” says Ferrari.
Just as Sandin Pellikka is quick to jump up in the rush when there’s an opportunity, he’s a great judge of when to activate off the point, sneaking in to the backdoor for a scoring chance or carrying the puck down low to create with his playmaking.
He also loves to shoot the puck and, fortunately, is quite good at it. He’s got a bomb of a one-timer, which he frequently used from the left faceoff circle on the power play, but also has a sneaky wrist shot and a better backhand than you would expect from a forward. He can find holes in a goaltender off the rush with a quick flick of his stick.
“His puck skills, playmaking, shot, and the ability to walk an offensive blue line make him a credible scoring threat with the puck on his stick, as does his ability to process options and make plays at speed off the rush,” said Elite Prospects’ Jimmy Hamrin.
The stickhandling really is a treat to watch with Sandin Pellikka, as he frequently looks like a first-line forward with the way he maneuvers the puck. He can dangle around opponents or undress a goaltender in the shootout.
Sandin Pellikka also has a knack for finding an open man with a pass, whether he’s making the easy pass to keep a play alive or finding a passing lane that seemingly no one else can see to create a dangerous scoring chance. There are some scouts who question his vision and playmaking but there are too many instances of him making high-level passes to dismiss his potential to make plays in the NHL.
How much does fit matter at the draft?
So, what does this all mean for the Canucks?
Sandin Pellikka looks like a defenceman who should be able to play on a second pairing at 5-on-5 while also quarterbacking the power play. He can be a breakout artist and offensive catalyst, which is not a role that needs to be confined to one player on an NHL blue line.
The question for the Canucks should not be whether Sandin Pellikka fits with their current roster but whether other prospects available at 11th overall have higher potential.
How should the Canucks weigh Sandin Pellikka’s offensive talents with those of fellow defencemen Tom Willander and Dmitri Simashev, who have safer defensive projections but far more questions about their offensive upside?
How should they compare Sandin Pellikka to forwards like Nate Danielson and Colby Barlow? If a forward like Zach Benson or Ryan Leonard slides out of the top ten, are they more tempting than a forward who could make a drastic improvement to the Canucks’ ability to move the puck up ice?
Or should the Canucks dismiss Sandin Pellikka out of hand, deciding that he’s not a fit for what they need in their system?
