The Vancouver Canucks desperately need centres and defencemen — particularly right-side defencemen — in their prospect pool and the 11th overall pick in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft presents a great opportunity to add a top-tier prospect at one of those positions.
But what if they feel the best player available at that pick is yet another winger?
When the Canucks have made picks in the first two rounds over the last four years, they’ve selected four wingers: Vasily Podkolzin, Nils Höglander, Danila Klimovich, and Jonathan Lekkerimäki. On June 28, the Canucks could pick another winger in the first round: Colby Barlow.
“Much, much more than just a goalscorer.”
According to The Athletic’s Harman Dayal, the Canucks took Barlow out to dinner during the NHL Combine in Buffalo, a clear indication of their interest in the winger.
Barlow’s position on draft rankings is all over the map. There are some who are very high on the power forward, with TSN’s Craig Button sneaking him into the top ten at 10th overall, while his colleague, Bob McKenzie, has him ranked 11th. Sportsnet has Barlow highest at ninth overall.
“He’s much, much more than just a goalscorer,” said Craig Button. “He can make plays. Even though the goals are more obvious and he’s weighted towards that on the scoring totals, he can make plays. He’s an excellent penalty killer, he’s got speed, he’s got power.”
Others don’t have such a lofty view of Barlow, even if they still see him as a first-round pick. Elite Prospects has him ranked 17th, Dobber Prospects has him at 27th, Smaht Scouting ranks him 30th, and Tony Ferrari at The Hockey News has him ranked 31st.
"Barlow is a player who will play at the NHL level but the upside may be limited," says Ferrari.
So, who is Barlow, why are some draft experts big believers in him, and would he be the right pick for the Canucks at 11th overall?
But yeah, he’s a goalscorer
Colby Barlow scores goals. Lots of them.
In 59 games with the Owen Sound Attack, Barlow tallied 46 goals and 79 points, both of which led all first-time draft-eligible players in the OHL this past season. That was a follow-up to his stellar 16-year-old season when he scored 30 goals in 59 games for the Attack, giving him a total of 76 goals in 118 OHL games so far in his career.
Barlow’s shot is obscenely good, arguably the best in this draft class aside from Connor Bedard. Actually, “shot” as a singular seems insufficient — Barlow has multiple shots in his arsenal, each of them ready at a moment’s notice to unleash in the right situation.
“Barlow can take a puck just about anywhere in his wheelhouse and send it right back on goal with one- and two-touch shots, one-timers, and a form-perfect wrist shot with an unlocked top arm generating a whole lot of downforce,” says his scouting report from Elite Prospects. “He can get those shots off from either leg, too. It’s pretty special to watch.”
When the situation calls for a quick release, the puck explodes off Barlow’s stick. When he needs to manipulate a goaltender, he changes the angle with a speedy drag into his skates before unleashing the puck. On the power play, he can hammer a one-timer from the right faceoff circle or the bumper position, giving goaltenders no chance at stopping the puck as it rings in off the crossbar.
He’s a goaltender’s worst nightmare with his ability to find the back of the net from distance.
All of Barlow’s ability to shoot the puck wouldn’t mean much if he couldn’t get into position to use it. While Barlow doesn’t need much space to release his shot, he has a knack for finding that space, sagging off defenders with a change in speed, quietly sneaking into the slot or backdoor, or bodying his way into dangerous areas.
“His sense of anticipation is a clear strength, informed by constant scanning away from the puck, and he always times his arrivals into space perfectly to make himself available as a passing option for his linemates,” says Elite Prospects.
Barlow doesn’t just score pretty goals with his elite shot, however. He’s just as willing to crash the crease and score ugly by banging in a rebound in a scrum or getting a tip on a point shot while fighting off a defenceman.
In any given situation, Barlow is looking for a way to score a goal: pretty, ugly, or somewhere in between.
With his combination of size and scoring ability, Barlow has been compared to NHLers like Timo Meier, Matt Boldy, and Carter Verhaeghe.
"Barlow's skill as a passer is underrated."
There are more dimensions to Barlow’s offence than just his ability to put the puck in the net.
Barlow has an explosive first step and possesses excellent straight-ahead speed, though he could add more east-west mobility with some development in his edge work. That speed makes him dangerous off the rush, where he can either score himself or use the threat of his shot to freeze a goaltender and set up a teammate.
While playmaking isn’t what he’s known for, Barlow can pass the puck well and is adept with saucer, hook, and slip passes. At the same time, he’s not likely to send passes through layers or make an exceptionally creative play. He tends to keep things simple just to maintain possession and a lot of his assists are a result of his shot, as he creates a lot of rebounds.
Still, there are those who like the playmaking side of his game.
“Barlow’s skill as a passer is underrated and underappreciated by scouts, at least in my opinion,” says Brock Otten of McKeen’s Hockey. “He may not consistently create significant scoring chances for his linemates with his ability to push pace off the rush, but he does have a great touch as a passer when operating down low.”
Keeping things simple isn’t always a bad thing and he’s shown flashes of playmaking that keep his offensive game from being too one-dimensional. Also, Barlow’s more straightforward approach could be more translatable to the NHL than the flashier plays of other prospects. The way he plays in the offensive zone looks immediately translatable to the NHL.
There are other limitations to Barlow’s offensive game. His puckhandling needs work and it limits his ability to beat defenders one-on-one and get the puck to more dangerous areas of the ice, so he sometimes settles for shots from distance. He’s not bad with the puck, by any means, but he’s not going to regularly dazzle defenders with dangles.
Some of his handling issues also show up in his pass receptions, which aren’t always as clean as they could be when receiving a pass in stride: development in his touch could make him an even more dangerous player.
"Man, does he ever bring it, shift after shift."
What’s key to Barlow’s projection to the NHL is that he’s not just an offensive threat. He also does all the little things away from the puck that coaches love to see, translating the same grit he shows when crashing the crease to his puck pursuit and board battles in the defensive zone.
“Barlow is hard on the puck and always takes the extra stride to finish his check,” says Elite Prospects. “His motor runs high and he tracks reasonably well through the neutral zone while making a consistent effort to backcheck.”
Prospects who score goals like Barlow has in junior are rarely as good as he is defensively, which is what makes him such a unique prospect. Far from a one-dimensional goalscorer, Barlow is a well-rounded, two-way player.
“As a three-zone player and overall defensive presence, Barlow is extremely effective because of his stick placement and anticipation,” says Otten. “Combine that with his quickness and it easily explains why he excels as a penalty killer.”
Barlow’s effort is never in question, as he constantly works to get the puck back defensively. He uses his speed to backcheck hard, his intelligence and awareness to pick up checks and take away passing lanes, and his strength along the boards to break up the cycle.
“I’ll say this much about Barlow – you never doubt the motor,” says J.D. Burke in one Elite Prospects scouting report. “Man, does he ever bring it, shift after shift, from puck drop to the final horn.”
That consistent effort and diligence defensively is a big part of his leadership ability, as he was named captain of the Attack at just 17 years old.
Just because he has a beard doesn't mean he's a full-grown man
One of the reasons Barlow has slipped to the bottom half of the first round in several rankings is a concern that he might not have much more room to develop and could be exploiting his size advantage in junior in a way that he won’t be able to in the NHL.
It’s an understandable concern. Barlow looks like a man among boys — quite literally, with his full beard — and bigger players can sometimes struggle when they face players who are just as big and strong as they are.
But Barlow’s game in the OHL is not dependent on bullying smaller players and his mature appearance doesn’t mean his game won’t mature in the coming years. He just turned 18 in February and has the type of personality to constantly work at improving his game.
Everything about Barlow, from his drive to be a difference-maker defensively to his elite shot, says that he will be an NHLer, with the potential to be a first-line winger alongside a great playmaking centre.
The risk of Barlow is that his puckhandling and creativity never catch up to the rest of his game, limiting his ability to put up points at the NHL level. It’s likely that even if he develops well, he ends up as more of a complementary player than one who drives play himself. It’s also possible that even with his shot, he winds up as more of a third-line, checking winger that plays more on the penalty kill than on the power play.
Should the Canucks take a chance on Barlow becoming an elite goalscorer in the NHL and take him 11th overall? Should his position as a winger play any role in their decision?
A player who produces like Barlow has to be in consideration, no matter what position he plays, particularly when he also has a mature two-way game. There’s also the possibility that the defencemen and centres that the Canucks would rank ahead of Barlow get picked in the top ten, making Barlow the best player available on their draft board.
