Canadian airlines may pivot some of their routes in the wake of political tensions south of the border. However, an expert says Metro Vancouverites likely won't notice a significant change in local travel - at least not immediately.
Scores of Canucks declared a self-imposed ban on travel to the United States following President Donald Trump's announcement about massive tariffs on Canadian goods. Many people who frequent top spring break destinations such as Disneyland, Disney World, Hawaii, New Orleans, and Las Vegas have set their sights on alternative options in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. Others are choosing to travel within Canada or stay home.
A spokesperson for Air Canada told V.I.A. the airline anticipates a slowdown on some U.S. routes but hasn't seen any changes yet.
"In our near-term bookings in the U.S., we don't see any major slowdown or anything substantial that would change our view of the market," they said.
However, Canada's largest airline may proactively pivot its strategy to reflect changes in traveller attitudes.
"If we can de-risk this a little bit and move -- and be a bit proactive and move capacity into other sectors, we see strength. I think that's the right move right now in this context," they added.
'A shift in bookings' from the U.S.
Canada's second-largest airline, WestJet, says it has already seen Canadians purchasing more travel outside the U.S.
"WestJet has observed a shift in bookings from the U.S. to other sun destinations such as Mexico and the Caribbean among Canadian travellers," spokesperson Julia Kaiser told V.I.A.
"WestJet remains focused on knowing where people want to go, and we will continue to fly where there is demand. Reciprocal visitation from both Canadian and U.S. tourists is important for the tourism industry, as it drives economic stimulus on both sides of the border."
Flair Airlines did not provide V.I.A. with a comment on the issue.
Vancouver may not see substantial flight changes immediately
Dr. Anthony Perl is a professor of urban studies and political science at Simon Fraser University. He says Canadian attitudes toward the U.S. tariffs have already impacted travel between Canada and the United States. However, the impacts on aviation aren't evenly distributed across Canada.
"It really depends on the scope and focus of what we're measuring," Perl tells V.I.A. "In many respects, Vancouver is different than the rest of Canada. We are Canada's principal port for cruise ships. Unless things change dramatically, most cruise passengers are from the U.S. and most of them come by air."
Canada Place saw a record-breaking cruise season last year, welcoming over 1.3 million passengers between March 11 and Oct. 29, 2024. The cruise industry generates a staggering $1.1 billion for the local economy, with each passenger spending an average of $450 each on hotels, restaurants, shopping, tours and local attractions, according to an Economic Impact Study released by the Vancouver Port Authority.
What YVR's 2024 data tells us about travel demand
Vancouver International Airport (YVR) sees a significant uptick in transborder flights in the summer months. While some of these trips may include Canadians visiting top U.S. destinations such as New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles, a substantial portion are U.S. travellers embarking on Alaskan cruises or other sailings from Vancouver.
In 2024, Vancouver's largest airport had 587,758 transborder flights in May, increasing by 39,616 trips to 627,374 flights in June. July and August had 701,548 and 700,283, respectively, according to the YVR's enplaned and deplaned passenger data.
Perl notes that thousands of passengers board one or more ships daily from the cruise terminal during the summer months and most of these travellers have booked their cruise several months if not years in advance. While airlines may publish schedules six months to a year in advance, cruise lines publish two to three years ahead. Flights servicing routes connecting Vancouver to U.S. cities during cruise season should remain largely unaffected - at least for now.
The professor believes the cruise industry will act as a kind of stabilizer for air traffic during the trade war, although the situation may evolve as temperatures drop. In the fall, Canadians planning winter holidays may opt out of popular U.S. sun destinations, looking to Mexico and the Caribbean for alternatives.
However, not all travel is as clear as leisure trips to predict.
Business travel may take longer to be affected
"We don't know what business travel looks like in a trade war," Perl explains, noting that many airlines hinge their schedules on the reliability of business flyers.
"Airlines tend to build their networks and schedules around business travel; it is more steady and not all about tourism. You aren't adding flights just for spring break - maybe one or two but not a whole schedule," he adds.
Perl notes that airlines build their schedules for economic reasons, ensuring the most profitable routes.
"Business activity will continue," he notes. "The recreational stuff driven by Canadians wanting more sun and fun will ebb away. There could be more flights to Mexico, Spain, and Portugal. But it's not going to be like North Korea where we cut off all access."
Many changes are also difficult to foresee since new tariffs may be added while others are delayed. They may also be dropped in the future. If the situation further deteriorates, Canadians may opt out of travel entirely, as they may not be able to afford a holiday.
Consumers may see 'little tweaks' in airline schedules, service for now
Perl says any immediate flight schedule changes from the tariffs won't radically alter the travel landscape.
"They could change to a bigger or smaller plane - we may see those little tweaks happen in the coming months. But if you want to see big, noticeable reductions in services, they will happen in October or after the cruise ship season."
An unintended result of the tariffs could be a reduction in greenhouse gasses if fewer people travel by air or ship due to economic or political reasons. Perl likens the possible situation to the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw notable decreases in pollution.
"It's a strange twist of fate that someone who thinks oil is the fuel for everything might produce less demand for carbon-based fuels."
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